| 引用本文: | 刘海军,唐晓培,杨丽.极端降水引起的大面积夏玉米减产方法研究——以2021年河南“720”强降水事件为例[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(12):-. |
| LIU Haijun,TANG Xiaopei,YANG Li.极端降水引起的大面积夏玉米减产方法研究——以2021年河南“720”强降水事件为例[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(12):-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】建立洪涝情况下粮食减损快速评估方法,评估了2021年河南省“720”强降水事件对夏玉米产量的影响。【方法】根据2021年6月18日到7月29日河南省每日的归一化植被指数(NDVI)遥感影像图片以及DEM数据,利用像元统计法确定720强降水事件中河南省夏玉米连续被淹区域,依据夏玉米受淹时长与减产关系以及追肥对受淹玉米产量补偿关系预估720强降水事件对河南省玉米产量造成的损失。【结果】河南省720强降水事件造成的涝灾区域主要分布在安阳、新乡和郑州地区,,该次强降雨事件造成夏玉米受淹面积共计3909万亩,其中中等程度受淹面积(淹水3天)851万亩,严重受淹面积(淹水5天)195万亩,绝收面积(淹水大于等于7天)296万亩。【结论】河南省720强降水事件造成夏玉米产量损失为393-491万吨,占全省玉米总产量的17%-22%(以2019年玉米产量为基准),该值与调研数据基本一致。因此本研究提出的极端降水事件下玉米受淹面积快速获取方法和减产估算模式,可为变化环境下的粮食估产和国家粮食安全研究提供技术支撑。 |
| 关键词: 强降水;夏玉米;受淹面积;减产评估;粮食安全 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S161.4 |
| 基金项目:自然基金重点项目(51939005)；111引智基地项目(B18006) |
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| Approach for evaluating summer maize yield losses under extreme rainfall events——A case study in “720” heavy rain event in Henan Province |
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LIU Haijun, TANG Xiaopei, YANG Li
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Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】This study aims to develop a quick and reliable method to evaluating crops response to flood under extreme rainfall condition. Then the developed method was sued to evaluate the impact of “720” heavy rain in 2021 on summer maize production in Henan Province. 【Method】Based on daily normalized vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing images and DEM data of Henan Province from June 18 to July 29, 2021, the continuous flooded area of summer maize in Henan Province in “720” heavy rain event was estimated by pixel statistics method. Then, according to the relationship between flooded duration and maize yield reduction and the compensation effect of topdressing on flooded maize yield, the loss of summer maize yield caused by the “720” rain event in Henan Province was evaluated.【Result】The flood region caused by the “720” rain event was mainly distributed in the north of Henan Province, including Anyang, Xinxiang and Zhengzhou regions. This heavy rain resulted in a total of flooded summer maize field of 39.09 million mu, in which 8.51 million mu was moderately flooded area (continuous flooded for 3 days), 1.95 million mu of severe flooded area (continuous flooded for 5 days), and 2.96 million mu without grain harvest (continuous flooded for 7 days).【Conclusion】The “720” heavy rain directly resulted in 3.93-4.91 million tons loss for summer maize grain, accounting for 17%-22% of the total maize production of the province (based on the maize production in 2019). This loss rate is close the field survey result. It can be concluded that, the developed method for quickly determining flood region of maize and estimating maize losses is acceptable and can be used in estimating maize production after extreme rainfall and national food security research. |
| Key words: Heavy rain; Summer maize; Flooding area; Yield losses assessment; Food security |
