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| DOI： |
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| Analysis of Change Characteristics and Mutation on Climate in the Main Stream of Tarim River |
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NIU Jianlong, LIU Weiyang, WANG Jiaqiang, CHI Chunming, WU Jialing, ZHANG Shan
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College of Plant Science, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the meteorological date from ten meteorological stations during 1961 to 2013 in the main stream of Tarim River, the changing characteristics and mutation on climate were analyzed by Penman-Monteith modem, climate inclination rate, Mann-Kendall?method in the main stream of Tarim River at different timescale. The result showed that:① The increased range (0.09 ℃/10 a ) on annual average air temperature before mutation point was lower than that after mutation point (0.13 ℃/10 a) and decreased range (4.05/10 a ) on annual aridity index was higher than that after mutation point (-0.54/10 a ), whose change tendency were “cold dry-warm moist-cold dry” , and annual mutation point on annual average air temperature and aridity index were 1990 and 1976 in the main stream of Tarim River from 1961 to 2013. ② The season distribution on average temperature was “summer＞spring＞autumn＞winter”, and season distribution on aridity index was “winter＞autumn＞spring＞summer”, and increased range (0.09 ℃/10 a, 11.42/10 a) on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were lower than that after mutation point (-0.52 ℃/10 a, -14.01/10 a) in spring, whose change tendency were “cold dry-warm moist-warm dry”. And the amplitude (0.02 ℃/10 a,-1.93/10 a; -0.25 ℃/10a,-84.48/10 a) on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were higher than that after mutation point (-0.01 ℃/10 a, -0.05/10 a; -0.12 ℃/10 a, 22.14/10 a) in summer and winter, whose change tendency were “cold dry-warm moist-cold dry”. And amplitude (0.02 ℃/10 a, -56.76/10 a) on average temperature and aridity index before mutation point were lower (higher) than that after mutation point (0.05 ℃/10 a, -16.34/10 a) in autumn, whose change tendency were “cold dry-warm moist- cold moist”. And four season mutation points on average air temperature and aridity index were 2003, 1999, 1993, 1978 and 1983, 1969, 1963, 1980 in the main stream of Tarim River from 1961 to 2013.③ The annual and seasonal aridity index were greater than 16. And cold-drying were obviously in annual, summer and winter, and warm-drying was obviously in spring, and cold-wetting was obviously in autumn after 2000. And decreased range(0.53 ℃/10 a, 0.9 ℃/10 a) on average air temperature were largest in autumn and winter. |
| Key words: climate change; Mann-Kendall test; river |
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