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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.12.019 |
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| Analyzing and Predicting the Applicable Precipitation in Xi’an City |
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WANG Haike， LI Yabin， QIAN Hui
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School of Environment Science and Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecology in Arid Areas, Ministry of Education, Xi’an 710054 ,China
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| Abstract: |
| Using the meteorological data measured from 1951 to 2015 at the Xi’an station, we analyzed and forecasted the variation of applicable precipitation in this area, using linear analysis method, Mann-Kendall method and orderly clustering method. We analyzed the trend and mutation change of rainfall and established a model to predict the applicable precipitation in Xi’an City using the weighted Markov chain. The results showed that the annual available precipitation varied, and the available precipitation years mainly changed with seasons, and the overall trend was reduced. Mutation analysis showed that the actual mutation of available precipitation occurred in 1957, 1966, 1974 and 1983. The comparison between actual value and predictive value showed that the model was capable of forecasting the available precipitation with small errors. The available precipitation in 2015 and 2016 was forecasted, and the values were 100.04 mm and 123.43 mm respectively. |
| Key words: available precipitation; Mann-Kendall method; weighted chain; trend analysis; Xi’an city |
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