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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0514 |
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| Using SPEI to Analyze the Droughts from 1960 to 2015 in Jianghan Plain |
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GUO Shulong， WEN Ji， JIANG Xin
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Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453002， China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Jianghan Plain in Hubei Province is susceptible to waterlogging and drought due to its low elevation. This paper aimed to analyze the occurrence of drought and flooding in the plains based on historical data. 【Method】 The analysis was based on the meteorological data measured from 1960 to 2015 from five meteorological stations in the region. The standard evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the Mann-Kendall mutation test as well as the Markov Process prediction were used to study the droughts and flooding and predict the probability of drought and flooding in 2016—2020. 【Result】 The Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed that the average temperature had been risen at 0.238 ℃/10 a, the precipitation increased at 0.368 mm/10 a and ET0 (evapotranspiration) increased at 0.028 mm/10 a. The precipitation increased faster that ET0, with the SPEI-1 increasing at the rate of 0.013/10 a, SPEI-3 at the rate of 0.018/10 a and SPEI-12 at the rate of 0.038/10 a. The SPEI was scale dependent, increasing with the scale. The Jianghan Plain appeared to be dry in spring and autumn, but wet in summer and winter. The longest drought lasted for 4 months, and the driest year occurred in 1966, and the driest month was in January of 1963. The longest flooding lasted for 9 months; the wettest year was in 1983, and the wettest month was in October of 1983. The prediction using the Markov Process showed that the probability of a drought was 45% and of a flooding was 35% in 2016. The probability of a drought was 30.61%, and of flooding was 29.71% in 2017. Annually, the probability of a drought was around 35% and the probability of a flooding was around 30% from 2018 to 2020. 【Conclusion】 Jianghan Plain trends to become increasingly wet but the probability of occurrence of a drought is lager than the occurrence of a flooding between 2016 and 2020. |
| Key words: drought； Jianghan plain； SPEI |
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