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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0625 |
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| The Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yulin Studied Using the Projection Pursuit Method |
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YONG Zhiqin， ZHANG Xin
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College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The availability of water resource is the determinant of economy in a region and the objective of this paper is to present a method to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resource in Yulin, Shanxi province.【Method】The proposed method was based on the project pursuit model which includes a water resource module, an economic module, a social module and an ecological module. We evaluated and compared the water resources carrying capacity of Yulin from 2013 to 2015 using the PSO projection pursuit model, from which seven contributive indexes were selected as a control object to predict the water resource carrying capacity in the future.【Result】The water resource carrying capacity in the region was moderate from 2013 to 2015, but was in decline with Shenmu Country deteriorating most changing from moderate level to weak level during the three-year period.【Conclusion】Calculation using the proposed model indicated that restructuring the industry, improving water reuse, implementing water-saving agriculture and optimizing crop variety is the way to resolve the declining water resources carrying capacity in this region. In addition, building a canal to divert water from the Yellow River is also an option to mitigate dwindling water resource. |
| Key words: water resources carrying capacity; index system; projection pursuit model; Yulin |
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