| Cite this article: | 孙朋.近60年来安徽省夏季降水的时空变化及其影响因素研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,(2):-. |
| SUN Peng.近60年来安徽省夏季降水的时空变化及其影响因素研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,(2):-. |
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| Study on the Summer Precipitation Spatial-Temporal Variation and Influencing Factors in Anhui Province in Recent 60 Years |
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SUN Peng
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Suzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】It is of great significance to study the variation trend and dynamic prediction of summer precipitation in Anhui Province.【Method】Based on the monthly precipitation date of 1959-2017 from 16 meteorological station in Anhui province, applying climate tendency rate, moving averaging method,Mann-Kendall method and Kriging interpolation method which is replied on Arcgis10.2, the article explored the spatial-temporal variation distribution characteristics and influencing factors of summer precipitation in Anhui Province in recent 60 years.【Results】(1)The average annual summer precipitation in the study area is 540.1mm, accounting for 45.9% of the total annual precipitation;and the summer precipitation variation range from 275.7mm to 1137.0mm; In the past 60 years, the average annual precipitation and summer average precipitation in Anhui Province generally show an increasing trend,the change rate of summer precipitation is 23.01mm/10a, which is slightly higher than the annual average precipitation change rate (21.31mm/10a). (2)Summer precipitation is also an important component of the extreme value of annual precipitation, and the summer precipitation in Anhui Province reached the maximum in the 1991, and the summer precipitation reached the minimum in the 1978. At the same time, there was a significant mutation point in 1975. From the end of 1970s to the middle of 1990s, the mutation situation was complex and changeable, and there were several abrupt years.The years of the mutation points are around El Nino years.(3)The spatial distribution of summer precipitation and the annual precipitation in Anhui Province show a trend that the precipitation is more in the south and less in the north . The gradient of annual precipitation is from 2370mm to 753.2mm.The gradient of summer precipitation is from 1045-426.4mm..【Conclusions】The variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Anhui Province are concentrated and abrupt; The increasing trend of precipitation is the result of the complex hydrothermal response under the background of global warming and the interaction of abnormal climate events represented by El Nino phenomenon. The significant differentiation of regional precipitation is resulted of regional climate transition and complex underlying surface topographic conditions in Anhui Province. |
| Key words: Anhui province; summer precipitation; mutation analysis; spatial-temporal distribution; influencing factors |
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