| Cite this article: | 罗映雪,徐长春,杨秋萍,等.基于SWAT模型的开都河上游未来土地利用变化对径流的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,(11):-. |
| luoyingxue,xuchangchun,yangqiuping,et al.基于SWAT模型的开都河上游未来土地利用变化对径流的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,(11):-. |
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| Influence of future land use change on runoff in the upper reaches of Kaidu River based on SWAT model |
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luoyingxue, xuchangchun, yangqiuping, yangyuanyuan, zhangjinxia
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Xinjiang University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Revealing the change of watershed runoff under the change of land use has important practical significance for the planning and rational utilization of water resources in the basin.【Method】Taking the upper reaches of the Kaidu River as the research object, this paper used the distributed hydrological model SWAT as a tool, and used the CA-Markov model prediction method, the local land use planning requirements and the extreme land use scenario method to set up 2025 land use scenarios. These include natural development scenarios, planned development scenarios, extreme grassland scenarios, and extreme forestland scenarios. 【Result】The results show that: ①The SWAT model constructed is statistically acceptable calibration period(R2=0.74 NSE=0.73) and validation period (R2=0.58, NSE=0.57). ②The Kappa coefficient of the 2010 land use type map simulated by the CA-Markov model is 0.83, which is highly accurate and can be used to predict the land use type in 2025. The change of land use type from 1980 to 2010 was mainly reflected in the conversion of grassland area into water body and unused land. The conversion area was 208.44km2 and 13.69km2 respectively. ③Compared with the base year (2010), the annual average runoff under each land use scenario is reduced, the natural development scenario is the fastest, and the extreme grassland scenario is the slowest; From the perspective of the wet season and the dry season, the monthly average runoff changes in each of the two periods are completely opposite. In terms of seasonal distribution, the land use types have the greatest impact on runoff changes in summer and less in winter. Grassland in this area is the most important regulation factor for runoff. 【Conclusion】The reduction of original grassland will cause a large decrease in summer runoff. For unused land, it can be considered as grassland. |
| Key words: Land use; SWAT model; CA-Markov model; runoff simulation; Kaidu River |
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