| Cite this article: | 吴小宏,刘招,王丽霞,等.联合EEMD与BP神经网络的灌区水源情势预测研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| WU Xiaohong,LIU Zhao,WANG Lixia,et al.联合EEMD与BP神经网络的灌区水源情势预测研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| DOI： |
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| The Surface Water Resources Situation and Its Forecasting for Jinghuiqu Irrigation Area Based on EEMD-BP |
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WU Xiaohong1, LIU Zhao2, WANG Lixia3, LI Qiang4, LI Wenqing4
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1.The Administration Bureau of Jinghui Canal Irrigation Area,Sanyuan;2.Institute of Water and development,Chang’an University,Xi’an;3.College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang’an University,Xi’an;4.Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region of Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To probe the problem of water resources reduction and its trend at Zhangjiashan, where the head of Jinghui Irrigation Area lies, 【Method】a hydrological series prediction model based on EEMD and BP artificial neural network was established, by training and correcting the model, the runoff and sediment situation at Zhangjiashan in the next ten years is predicted, and the available surface water resources for the irrigation area are analyzed. 【Result】The results show that the combination of EEMD and BP neural network can give full play to their respective advantages and greatly enhance the prediction ability for non-stationary time series. The change of runoff and sediment at the irrigation area's canal head is relatively synchronous, rise in the near future and then decline. The average annual runoff is about 1.186 billion m3, slightly higher than that at present, and the average annual sediment transport is about 100 million t, slightly lower than that at present. 【Conclusion】The available water resources at Zhangjiashan is relatively stable, the average is about 779 million m3, which can meet the surface water demand of the irrigation area. However, attention should be paid to some dry years to prevent the shortage of irrigation water. |
| Key words: water resources; annual runoffs; forecasting; nature of runoff and sediment; Jinghuiqu Irrigation Area |
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