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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2019088 |
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| Study on the summer precipitation spatial-temporal variation and influencing factors in Anhui Province in 1959―2017 |
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SUN Peng, JIN Yanting, GUO Zhongchen, LIU Na, SU Haimin
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College of Environment and Surveying Engineering, Suzhou University, Suzhou 234000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The objective of this paper is to study the variation trend and dynamic prediction of summer precipitation in Anhui Province.【Method】Based on the monthly precipitation date of 1959-2017 from 16 meteorological station in Anhui province, applying climate tendency rate, moving averaging method, Mann-Kendall method and Kriging interpolation method based on Arcgis10.2, the article explored the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of summer precipitation in Anhui Province in recent 60 years.【Result】The average annual summer precipitation in the study area was 540.1 mm, accounting for 45.9% of the total annual precipitation, and the summer precipitation variation ranged from 275.7 mm to 1 137.0 mm. In the past 60 years, the average annual precipitation and summer average precipitation in Anhui Province generally showed an increasing trend, with the change rate of summer precipitation being 23.01 mm/10 a, which is slightly higher than the annual average precipitation change rate (21.31 mm/10 a). Summer precipitation was also an important component of the extreme value of annual precipitation, and the summer precipitation in Anhui Province reached the maximum in 1991 and the minimum in 1978. At the same time, there was a significant mutation point in 1975. From the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, the mutation situation was complex and changeable, and there were several abrupt years. The years of the mutation points were around El Nino years. The spatial distribution of summer precipitation and the annual precipitation in Anhui Province showed a trend that the precipitation was more in the south and less in the north. The gradient of annual precipitation was from 237.0 mm to 753.2 mm. The gradient of summer precipitation was from 426.4 to 1 045 mm.【Conclusion】The variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Anhui Province were concentrated and abrupt. The increasing trend of precipitation was the result of the complex hydrothermal response under the background of global warming and the interaction of abnormal climate events represented by El Nino phenomenon. The significant differentiation of regional precipitation resulted in regional climate transition and complex underlying surface topographic conditions in Anhui Province. |
| Key words: Anhui province; summer precipitation; mutation analysis; spatial-temporal distribution; influencing factors |
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