| Cite this article: | 李虹彬,刘亚婷,王卫光,等.气候要素对阿克苏河径流变化影响的定量评估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| LI Hongbin,Liu Yating,Wang Weiguang,et al.气候要素对阿克苏河径流变化影响的定量评估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Quantitative assessment the impact of climate factors on streamflow changes |
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LI Hongbin1, Liu Yating2, Wang Weiguang3, Pang Maitian4
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1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;2.Hohai University College of Hydrology and Water resource;3.Hohai University College of Hydrology and Water Resources;4.Hohai University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate change has had on streamflow change, however, the current research mostly explores the influence of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on streamflow change, and the relative influence of temperature on the streamflow change is still less studied.【Objective】 To explore the attribution of the Aksu River streamflow change. 【Method】Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test and Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test were used to estimate the changing trend and abrupt change of hydrological and meteorological data in the basin, and three improved elastic coefficient methods were used to evaluate the influence of climate factors (especially temperature) on streamflow change of the Aksu River. 【Result】The results show that streamflow and temperature increased significantly at the rates of 11.73 (m3/s)/10a and 0.26℃/10a respectively (P<0.01). Precipitation also exhibits an upward trend, increasing at a rate of 14.31mm/10a (P<0.05), while potential evapotranspiration shows a significant downward trend (21.89mm/10a, P<0.01). The test results show that the abrupt changes of temperature (1993), precipitation (1991) and potential evapotranspiration occurred in the early 1990s, the abrupt change point of streamflow occurs in the year 1993, which also indicates that the streamflow has changed significantly due to the influence of climate factors after 1994. Therefore, the multi-year average streamflow and climate factors from 1960 to 1993 are employed as the baseline values to measure changes. From 1994 to 2010, streamflow, precipitation, and temperature increasing by 23.1%, 22.5%, 32.4% compared with 1960 to 1993 respectively, while the potential evapotranspiration declining7.6%. The linear regression relationship between temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and streamflow of Aksu River has passed the statistical test with a significance level of 1%. The results show that the linear regression coefficient can well reflect the relationship between runoff and climate factors, and it is effective to deduce the climate elasticity with the linear regression equation. The sensitivity analysis result showed that the elasticity of streamflow to temperature (εT) and precipitation (εP) is 1.138 and 0.2708 respectively, which means that every 1% increase in temperature and precipitation will lead to 1.138% and 0.2708% increase in streamflow. The elasticity coefficient of streamflow to potential evapotranspiration is -1.003(εPET), indicating that a decrease of 1% in potential evapotranspiration will lead to an increase of 1.003% in streamflow. The Aksu River streamflow is the most sensitive to temperature changes, followed by potential evapotranspiration, and the least sensitive to precipitation changes. The results show that the relative contribution rate of temperature rise to streamflow change is 46.7%, which is the most important factor for streamflow increase, while the effects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration account for 20.5% and 24.9% of streamflow change respectively. Showed that the streamflow of increasing percentage only accounted for 7.9% owing to the non-climate (mainly human activities), the relative contribution rate of other non-climatic factors (mainly human activities) to streamflow change is about 7.9%.【Conclusion】 Indicating that climate change is the main cause of streamflow change in the Aksu River. However, with the continuous intensification of human activities in the upper and lower reaches of the basin, human activities will have an increasingly important impact on streamflow changes. |
| Key words: streamflow alteration; Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test; elastic coefficient; climate change |
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