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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020508 |
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| Change in Runoff in Hotan River in Xinjiang and Its Determinants |
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HUANG Xing, CHEN Fulong, ZHAO Qi, HE Chaofei, LONG Aihua
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1. College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China;2. Hydrology Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】Global warming and anthropogenic activities have combined altering the runoff in the Hotan river in Xinjiang. The objective of this paper is to analyze the change in its runoff and the factors that affected it, and to predict how the runoff will trend in response to anthropogenic activities and environmental change respectively.【Method】Evolution in the runoff, its periodicity and abnormal changes, as well as their determinants were analyzed using the M-K test, Pettitt mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and other methods. The correlation between the runoff and its determinants was analyzed using the correlation test method; multiple linear equation and neural network models were established to link the runoff and its determinants to separate the contribution of climate factors and anthropogenic activities to the runoff. 【Result】①The runoff in Yulong Kashi river has been in increase, while it does not show noticeable change in Kara Kashi river. Abnormal runoff change occurred in 2009 and 2004. There were two dry-wet cycles in the period of 40~55 years for Yulong Kashi river and period of 33~55 year for Kara Kashi river. Precipitation in both Yulong Kashi and Kara Kashi rivers has been in increase and there have been three abundant-less cycles in each, with an abnormal change occurring in 2001. The average annual temperature in the two rivers has increased significantly, with an abnormal change in 1984. The temperature has seen two cold-warm cycles. ②The main determinants of the runoff change in the two rivers are climate change, which contributed to 84.06% and 72.51% of the runoff change in the two rivers, compared to 15.94% and 27.49% caused by anthropogenic activities. 【Conclusion】 The periodicity of wet-dry cycles in Yulong Kashi and Kara Kashi river was 40~55 a and 33~55 a respectively; rainfall in the two rivers will decrease. The abrupt change in the runoff in Kara Kashi river is largely due to the construction of the Uluwati reservoir; the change in precipitation and temperature coincides with climate change in northwest China. Temperature affects recharge to the runoff, while climate change drives the change in runoff. |
| Key words: runoff; influence factors; contribution rate; periodic; Hotan river |
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