| Cite this article: | 王飞宇,张 彦,邹 磊,等.基于Copula函数的汉江流域降水径流丰枯遭遇研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| WANG Feiyu,Zhang Yan,ZOU Lei,et al.基于Copula函数的汉江流域降水径流丰枯遭遇研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Research on the Wetness-dryness Encountering of Rainfall-runoff in Hanjiang River Basin Based on Copula Functions |
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WANG Feiyu1, Zhang Yan2, ZOU Lei1, WANG Cai3, CHEN Ting4, YU Fei-long5
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1.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;3.Nantong Branch of the Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Jiangsu Province;4.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University;5.Nanjing Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】As the largest tributary of the Yangtze River, it is of great significance to explore the risk of wetness-dryness encountering for rainfall and runoff for scientific water resources management in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB). 【Method】Based on the runoff data of four hydrological stations and precipitation data of the control catchment in the HRB, the joint distribution model of wetness-dryness encountering for rainfall and runoff were constructed by using two-dimensional and three-dimensional Copula functions, and the risk probabilities of wetness-dryness encountering for rainfall and runoff were analyzed. 【Result】The results showed that the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities between runoff and rainfall in the control catchment at Shiquan and Baihe stations in the upper reaches of the HRB were higher, 73.06% and 73.45% respectively; the asynchronous wetness-dryness probability at Huangjiagang station in the middle reaches of the HRB was the highest, reaching 45.21%; the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities at Shiquan, Baihe and Huangjiagang stations in the upper and middle reaches of the HRB presented the synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness > synchronous normal, while at Xiantao station in the lower reaches, the synchronous wetness-dryness probability showed the synchronous normal > synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness. The synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of rainfall in the control catchment for the combination of Shiquan, Baihe and Huangjiagang stations in the upper and middle reaches of the HRB were higher, 72.88%; the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of rainfall in the control catchment under different combinations of stations showed the synchronous normal > synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness, and that of runoff showed the synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness > synchronous normal. 【Conclusion】The consistency of wetness and dryness for runoff and rainfall in the upper reaches of the HRB was good, that in the lower reaches was relatively good, while that in the middle reaches was poor. The wetness-dryness of rainfall in the control catchment under different station combinations has relatively good consistency, while the difference between the synchronous and asynchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of runoff was not significant. |
| Key words: Hanjiang River Basin; Copula function; rainfall and runoff; wetness-dryness encountering; probability |
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