| Cite this article: | 李晓琳,肖颖,邓姜艳,等.基于空间转移图谱的异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化特征及趋势预测[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Li Xiaolin,Xiao Ying,Deng Jiangyan,et al.基于空间转移图谱的异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化特征及趋势预测[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| DOI： |
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| Spatio-temporal change characteristics and trend prediction of land use in Yilong Lake Basin based on spatial transfer map |
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Li Xiaolin1, Xiao Ying1, Deng Jiangyan1, Zheng Yi2
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1.College of Ecology and Environment,Southwest Forestry University;2.Yunnan Open University
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| Abstract: |
| Clarifying the dynamic changes of land use in plateau lake basins is of great significance to the environmental protection of lakes and the realization of their sustainable development. This paper selects Landsat image data of Shiping County from 1999 to 2018, and obtains the spatial distribution and change characteristics of land use types in the Yilong Lake Basin through remote sensing interpretation, and uses the land use transfer matrix to analyze the characteristics of land use dynamic changes in the Yilong Lake Basin in the past 20 years. Finally, the CA-Markov model is used to predict the land use change trend of Yilong Lake Basin in 2030 and 2050. The results show that from 1999 to 2005, the land use in the Yilong Lake Basin was dominated by cropland, and the land use was dominated by forest from 2010 to 2018,. From 1999 to 2018, the area of cropland, pasture, unused land and water area continued to decrease, and the reduction area was respectively 50.60 km2, 27.17 km2, 24.72 km2 and 6.66 km2. On the contrary, forest and urban increased significantly. The increase of forest mainly comes from cropland, pasture and unused land; the increase of urban area mainly comes from cropland and unused land. It is expected that by 2050, urban and forest will continue to increase with areas of 98.62 km2 and 161.03 km2, while the area of water will decrease. They are the important goals of land resource management in Yilong lake watershed to control the increase of urban area and the decrease of lake area in the future. |
| Key words: Yilong Lake Basin; Land use; Transition matrix; Spatial change; CA-Markov model |
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