| Cite this article: | 李子威,唐湘玲,黎力菊.漓江上游径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(10):-. |
| APGN,唐,黎.漓江上游径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(10):-. |
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| DOI： |
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| Analysis of runoff evolution characteristics and influencing factors in the upper reaches of Lijiang River |
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APGN1, 唐2, 黎1
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1.Gui’lin University of technology,Gui’lin;2.桂林理工大学
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To explore the characteristics and influencing factors of runoff evolution in Lijiang River Basin.【Method】Taking Dayun River in the upstream river section as an example, according to the long-term monitoring data of meteorological and hydrological stations in the basin from 1980 to 2019, the variation trend, mutation characteristics and periodic law of runoff, temperature and precipitation are analyzed by using Pettitt mutation test, Mann kenddall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. On the basis of determining the correlation between temperature, precipitation and runoff, the multivariate linear equations of temperature, precipitation and runoff are established.【Result】The runoff of Lijiang River Basin showed a decreasing trend, but not significant. The sudden change year was 2018. At the scale of 40 years, Lijiang River Basin experienced four dry to wet transformation cycles. The precipitation in Lijiang River Basin shows an increasing trend. The abrupt change year is 2015, and the precipitation shows the alternation of more to less for four times. The average annual temperature increased significantly, with a tendency rate of 0.38 ℃ / 10 years and a sudden change year of 2016; On the whole, there are two cold warm cycles. 1984 and 2011 are the central years of the partial cold period, and 1981 and 2019 are the central years of the partial warm period. There is 5~7a an oscillation period in the temperature evolution.【Conclusion】It is predicted that the Lijiang River Basin will change from wet season to dry season in the future; The precipitation in Lijiang River Basin will be in the period of less water in the future; The temperature in the Lijiang River Basin is in a warm stage at the 40A scale. The abrupt change point of runoff in the basin is caused by the change of land use, the construction of flood control and water replenishment projects, climate change and other factors. The abrupt change time of precipitation and temperature is consistent with the climate change in South China. |
| Key words: runoff; Mutation test; Influencing factors; Periodicity; Lijiang River |
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