| Cite this article: | 魏宣,王宁,周明通,等.气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化影响定量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| WEI Xuan,WANG Ning,ZHOU Mingtong,et al.气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化影响定量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Quantitative study of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Kriya River |
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WEI Xuan, WANG Ning, ZHOU Mingtong, GUO Yu-chuan
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XINJIANG University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To gain insight into the potential mechanisms and drivers of runoff changes in the Kriya River.【Method】Based on trend analysis,correlation analysis and abrupt change analysis,the contribution of climate change and human activities to the change of runoff of the Kriya River was calculated using the double cumulative curve method and the comparison of the slope rate of change of cumulative volume,respectively.【Result】The results showed that the mean annual temperature and annual runoff in the Kriya River basin showed a certain significant increasing trend during 1958-2015,the annual precipitation showed a non-significant increasing trend,while the potential evapotranspiration showed a significant decreasing trend;the sudden change point of runoff in the Kriya River basin was determined in 1999 by the MK mutation test method,the cumulative distance level method and the ordered clustering method; using 1958-1999 as the reference period,the contribution of climate change and human activities to the runoff changes from 2000 to 2015 using the double cumulative curve method were calculated as 59.16% and 40.84%,respectively, and the results of contribution by the cumulative slope rate of change comparison method were 79.03% and 20.97%.【Conclusion】Therefore,climate change is the primary factor influencing the changes in the runoff of the Kriya River,and human activities are a secondary factor. |
| Key words: double cumulative curve method; Kriya River Basin;Climate change; human activities; comparison of the slope rate of change of cumulative volume |
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