| Cite this article: | 席海潮,解阳阳,刘赛艳,等.径流变异对黑河流域上游径流统计特征与频率分析的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| xihaichao,xieyangyang,liusaiyan,et al.径流变异对黑河流域上游径流统计特征与频率分析的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Impact of runoff variability on statistical characteristics and frequency analysis of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin |
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xihaichao1, xieyangyang1,2, liusaiyan1, huangchengjian1, shenteng1, zhangqin1
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1.College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University;2.Modern Rural Water Conservancy Research Institute, Yangzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The study of runoff statistical characteristics and frequency analysis is of great significance for water resources planning and construction of water resources projects, as runoff from watersheds exhibits significant trends due to environmental changes. 【Method】Using the annual runoff and annual maximum flood flow in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin as the study object. The runoff sequences (window sequences) intercepted by two types of analysis windows, the fixed-point variable-width window (type A window) and the variable-point fixed-width window (type B window), were analyzed separately. The statistical characteristics of the window series were analyzed using P-Ш type curves and the runoff design values were derived. The linear trend analysis method, MMK trend test method and heuristic segmentation method were applied to analyze the window series for trend and mutation test. 【Result】(1) The estimated annual runoff parameters Ex showed a significant increasing trend and mutation in the type A and type B window analysis, Cv showed a significant increasing trend in the type A window analysis and mutation in the type B window analysis, and Cs showed mutation in the type B window analysis. The design values of different frequencies of annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend and abrupt changes in type A and type B windows. (2) The estimated parameters of annual maximum flood Cv had mutations in the type A window analysis, Ex had mutations in the type B window analysis, and Cs had a significant increasing trend and mutations in the type B window analysis. The design values of different frequencies of the annual maximum flood were not significantly increasing in the type A window analysis, but there was a sudden change. There was a significant increasing trend and mutation in the B type window analysis. 【Conclusion】There are significant trends in the statistical characteristics and design values of runoff in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin. Despite the variability of runoff processes, the type A window analysis is more favorable than the type B window analysis for hydrological frequency calculations, and more reliable design values of runoff can be obtained. |
| Key words: Time-varying characteristics; Frequency analysis; Trend test; Heuristic segmentation method; Heihe River Basin |
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