| Cite this article: | 侯靳锦,孙筱璐,王碧胜,等.不同水分条件下APEX模型参数的敏感性评价和不确定性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| HOU Jinjin,SUN Xiaolu,WANG Bisheng,et al.不同水分条件下APEX模型参数的敏感性评价和不确定性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
|
| |
|
|
| This article has been：Browse 996Times Download 0Times |
|
|
|
| DOI： |
|
| Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of APEX model parameters under different soil moisture conditions |
|
HOU Jinjin, SUN Xiaolu, WANG Bisheng, YANG Xiaohui, XU Mengjie, FANG Quanxiao
|
|
Qingdao Agricultural University College of agriculture
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Background】 Sensitivity analysis of agricultural system model is critical to model parameterization and application.【Objective】 In order to investigate the effects of different soil, climate, management factors on the sensitivity of model parameter under various soil water conditions.【Method】Based on the irrigation experiment of Winter Wheat at Jiaodong area from 2016 to 2019, the Sobol, Morris and FAST methods were used to analyze the sensitivities of parameters that closely related to crop growth and water stress in APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model as influenced by groundwater levels, rainfall pattern and irrigation management. 【Result】Under local experimental conditions (groundwater table with 1.25 m), the most sensitive parameter affecting evapotranspiration, biomass and yield was RDMX (maximum root depth), and the most sensitive parameter affecting leaf area index (LAI) was DMLA (maximum potential leaf area index). When the groundwater table was set at 5 m, the sensitive parameters affecting crop evapotranspiration and yield were obviously different, and the parameters of PARM38 (weight coefficient of water stress calculation) and RWPC1 (proportion of root biomass during germination), instead of RDMX under 1.25 m groundwater table, became the most sensitive parameters. All the three methods indicated that, with the increase of irrigation water, the sensitivity of RDMX decreased, but the sensitivities of DMLA, DLAI (peak point in growth season) and WA (potential light energy utilization) increased. The sensitivity indexes of RDMX in dry years were significantly higher than that in humid years, while the sensitivity of DMLA showed the opposite trend. The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed wheat biomass, yield and evapotranspiration were all within the 5%~95% confidence interval of the simulated data, indicating a high reliability of the model in the region. 【Conclusion】The most sensitive parameters screened by the Sobol method, Morris method and FAST method showed good consistency, but their sensitivity indexes were obvious different among the irrigation treatments, rainfall patterns and groundwater table levels. Considering the calculation efficiency and accuracy, Morris method is more suitable for parameter sensitivity analysis of APEX model. These results provided useful information on APEX calibration and application under various soil water conditions. |
| Key words: APEX model; sensitivity analysis; water stress; Sobol; Morris; Fast; uncertainty analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
