| Cite this article: | 郑灵巧,邢 坤,刘思海,等.开都河源区60 a径流演变规律及影响因素定量分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,():-. |
| Zheng Lingqiao,Xing Kun,LIU Sihai,et al.开都河源区60 a径流演变规律及影响因素定量分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,():-. |
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| Quantitative analysis of 60-year runoff evolution and influencing factors in the source area of Kaidu River |
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Zheng Lingqiao1, Xing Kun1, LIU Sihai1, GUO Chunhong2
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1.School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,Xinjiang University;2.Xinjiang Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Administration Bureau
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To clarify the runoff evolution rule and quantitatively analyze its influencing factors in the headwaters of Kaidu River under the background of climate change, so as to provide scientific reference for the development and utilization of water resources in the basin.【Method】this article is based on Kaidu river source area nearly 60 meteorological and hydrological data, a the Mann - Kendall examination, R/S method, order clustering method, the methods of wavelet analysis, analysis of Kaidu river source area runoff evolution law, and the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change was quantitatively studied by double accumulation curve method, cumulative slope change rate method and climate elastic coefficient method.【Results】(1) From 1960 to 2019, the annual runoff in the source region of Kaidu River increased at a rate of 1.714×108 m3/10 a, and the Hurst index was 0.83. There were three main periods of runoff change, which were 36 a, 21 a and 9 a, respectively, and the abrupt point of runoff was 1995. (2) In recent 60 years, the temperature and precipitation in the source region of Kaidu River increased at a rate of 0.239 ℃/10 a and 7.670 mm/10 a, respectively.The Hurst index was 0.85 and 0.83, and the correlation coefficients with runoff were 0.560 and 0.598, respectively. (3) According to the double cumulative curve method, cumulative slope change rate method and climate elasticity coefficient method, the contribution rate of climate factors to runoff change is 89.9%, 73.1% and 43%, and the contribution rate of human factors is 10.1%, 26.9% and 57%, respectively. The runoff simulation error in the base period is 2.1%, 0.2% and 4.1%, respectively. 【Conclusion】The annual runoff of Kaidu River in recent 60 years showed a very significant increase trend, and climate change was the main reason for the increase. |
| Key words: Kaidu River; Runoff; Law of evolution; Factors affecting the |
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