| Cite this article: | 王怡宁.五道沟地区“蒸发悖论”及成因探析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| wangyining.五道沟地区“蒸发悖论”及成因探析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| "Evaporation Paradox" in Wudaogou Area and Its Causes |
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wangyining
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Nanjing hydraulic research institute,Nanjing
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| Abstract: |
| In view of the current phenomenon of “evaporation paradox” in the study of the impact of climate change on the pan evaporation, background data from the 1970-2017 weather data of the Wudaogou Experimental Station in Wudaogou area. The annual variation trend of evaporation is analyzed and predicted, and the influencing factors (wind speed, temperature, sunshine hours, water vapor pressure difference, rainfall, relative humidity) are qualitatively analyzed by trend line analysis method, and entropy method is applied. Comprehensive evaluation, and in-depth discussion of the causes of changes in the evaporating dish evaporation trend. Research indicates: (1) The evaporation rate showed a significant downward trend from 1970 to 2017, and the rate of decline was 8.7 mm/a. The GM(1,1) model and the Verhulst model in the gray system were used to predict the inter-annual trend of evaporation. The results showed that GM (1,1) The model predicts better results.(2) Correlation between evaporation and various meteorological elements: wind speed, sunshine hours and evaporation are positively correlated, and temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and evaporation are negatively correlated. From 1970 to 2017, the temperature increased by 0.25 °C every 10 years, and the evaporation of water surface decreased by 86.9 mm every 10 years. There is a phenomenon of "evaporation paradox" in this area. (3) The linear trend method and the entropy method are consistent with the analysis results of various influencing factors: wind speed > temperature > relative humidity > sunshine hours > rainfall > water vapor pressure difference, indicating that the wind speed drops in the context of global warming, The increase in relative humidity and the reduction in sunshine hours are the main factors in the “evaporation paradox” phenomenon in the region. (4) The decrease of sunshine hours may be caused by the increase of aerosol content; the decrease of wind speed may be related to the development of urbanization. The decrease of wind speed may cause the increase of aerosol; the increase of relative humidity increases the probability of foggy weather. This will result in a reduction in sunshine hours. In summary, the cause of the “evaporation paradox” inWudaogou area may be an increase in aerosol content. The increase in aerosol content leads to a decrease in solar radiation and a decrease in evaporation. This study provides a basis for further exploration of the cause of changes in evaporating dish evaporation. |
| Key words: Pan evaporation; trend variation; meteorological factors; Wudaogou area |
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