| Cite this article: | 王亦尘,杜龙刚.基于新安江模型和NAM模型的通县站洪水预报研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,(增刊12):-. |
| Wang Yichen,Du Longgang.基于新安江模型和NAM模型的通县站洪水预报研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,(增刊12):-. |
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| Flood Forecasting research of Tongxian based on Xinanjiang and NAM model |
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Wang Yichen, Du Longgang
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Beijing Hydrology center
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| Abstract: |
| The flood forecasting research was focused on Tongxian which was located on Bei Channel riverside of Beijing. Xinanjiang Model and NAM model were used in the process of forecasting. Significant floods in the year of 1980-2018 were chosen to simulate. There were 18 historical floods. The results showed: 1) In the period of 1980-2000, the qualification rate of flood peak and flood total aggregate predicted by Xinanjiang model has reached 75% and 50% generally. Besides, in the stage of 2001-2018, the qualification rate of flood peak and flood total aggregate value were reached at 67% and 78% also predicated by Xinanjiang model, which was obviously better than the results of 1980-2000. 2) The qualification rate of flood peak and flood total aggregate predicted by NAM model in the stage of 1980-2000 were 89% and 40%, perspectively. In the stage of 2001-2018, the qualification rate of flood peak and flood total aggregate both reached at 78%. 3) NAM Model was more suitable than Xinanjiang model to simulate flood peak in two different stages, but it was weak in simulating flood total aggregate. In the period of 2001-2018, the two models performed similarly. 4) Parameters of Imp, Cks, Wm, Cki and Sm in Xinanjiang model were sensitive to the simulating results. In NAM model, parameters of Umax, Lmax and CQOF influenced the simulating results positively. 5) The number of parameters in Xinanjiang model was more than NAM model’s. The describing and dividing process in Xinanjiang of runoff water was quite detailed. On contrary, NAM model has less parameters and more simple than Xinanjiang model. Choosing the simulating model was decided according to the detail situation of drainage area and the history data. |
| Key words: Bei Channel, NAM Model, MIKE 11, Xinanjiang Model, Flood Forecasting |
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