| Cite this article: | 黄星,陈伏龙,赵琪,等.新疆和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素分析 [J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Huang Xing,Chen Fulong,Zhao Qi,et al.新疆和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素分析 [J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Analysis on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Runoff Evolution of Hotan River in Xinjiang |
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Huang Xing1, Chen Fulong1, Zhao Qi2, He Chaofei1, Long Aihua3
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1.College of Water Conservancy Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University;2.Hydrology Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region;3.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract:【Background】In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the Hotan river runoff had changed.【Objective】The objective is analyzing the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of Hotan River runoff, and predicting the future trend of regional runoff changes and quantitative analysis of the contribution of human activities and environmental changes to runoff.【Method】M-K test, Pettitt mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and other methods were used to analyze the trend changes, mutation characteristics and periodicity of runoff and influencing factors. The correlation test method is used to determine the correlation between influencing factors and runoff, and establish multiple linear equations and neural network models of influencing factors and runoff to quantitatively analyze the level of contribution of climate factors and human activities to runoff changes.【Result】(1)The Yulong Kashi River showed an increasing trend, but the trend of the runoff of the Kara Kashi River was not obvious. The abrupt years occurred in 2009 and 2004, respectively. The Yulong Kashi River at the 40-55a scale and the 33-55a scale The Kara Kashi River underneath has experienced two cycles of dry-to-rich transition. The precipitation in the Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River both showed a significant growth trend. The abrupt year of the abrupt change was 2001, and the precipitation in the two rivers simultaneously exhibited 3 times of over-to-less alternation. The average annual temperature has increased significantly, and a sudden change occurred in 1984. The temperature has two cycles of cold-warm transition, and it is in a warmer stage at the 40-50a scale. (2)The main influencing factors of the runoff changes of the Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River are climate change, and human activities have little impact. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff is 84.06% and 72.51%, and the contribution rate of human activities is 15.93% and 27.49%.【Conclusion】The Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River turn from rich water period to poor water period at the scale of 40a-55a and 33-55a. Rainfall in Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River Basin will be a less water period in the future. The temperature in the Hotan River Basin is at a relatively warm stage at the 40-50a scale. The abrupt point of the Kara kashi River is related to the construction of the water conservancy project. The sudden change of precipitation and temperature coincides with the climate change in the northwest. Temperature factor is the main influence component of runoff recharge, and climate change is the main factor of runoff change. |
| Key words: Runoff; Influence Factors; Contribution Rate; Periodic; HoTan River |
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