| Cite this article: | 刘波,樊成芳,束龙仓,等.考虑气候变化与人类活动影响的三江平原典型区地下水埋深预估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| LiuBo,FanChengfang,ShuLongcang,et al.考虑气候变化与人类活动影响的三江平原典型区地下水埋深预估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Simulation and Projection of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Groundwater Depth in Typical Area of Sanjiang Plain |
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LiuBo, FanChengfang, ShuLongcang, WangWenpeng, HuXin
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HoHai University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Sanjiang Plain, located in the northeast of Heilongjiang Province, is formed by the alluvial and diluvial deposits of Heilong River, Wusuli River and Songhua River. It is a fertile land and an important commodity grain base in China. The amounts of agricultural irrigation water account for more than 90% of the total groundwater exploitation. With the potential impact of climate change on water resources, it is important to understand and project the impact of climate change and human activities on groundwater dynamic at present and in future scenarios. The results may provide scientific support for sustainable regulation and management of groundwater resources in Sanjiang Plain.【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to project the response of groundwater depth to climate change and human activities in the typical area of Sanjiang Plain under future development scenarios, and to provide theoretical basis and scientific guidance for climate change adaptation strategies and rational utilization of groundwater resources of local administration.【Method】The groundwater regime in typical areas of Sanjiang Plain were analyzed, and the stepwise Support Vector Regression (SVR) was established to simulate groundwater depth in non-irrigated season (October to next April) and irrigated season (May to September). The data of climate change scenarios published by CMIP6 and the change of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation were applied to project the response of groundwater depth from 2020 to 2050.【Result】From 2001 to 2017, groundwater depth in typical areas of Sanjiang Plain increased by 0.2 m/a, and was mainly affected by precipitation in non-irrigation season and pumping activities in irrigation season. Compared with the current year (2001-2017), annual precipitation in Sanjiang Plain increased by 26.76 mm under the scenario of SSP585 with high greenhouse gas emissions in the future. If the exploitation increased 5% each year until 2025, groundwater depth may increase by 17.11 cm in irrigation season and decrease by 1.35 cm in non-irrigation season. Under the sustainable development scenario of SSP126, the annual precipitation may increase by 26.56mm in average. If the exploitation decreased 5% each year until 2025, groundwater depth will decrease by 19.76 cm in irrigated season and 0.92 cm in non-irrigated season.【Conclusion】Groundwater exploitation is the dominant factor of groundwater depth in Sanjiang Plain, and the impact of future climate change can emerge in non-irrigation period. The rational groundwater pumping can effectively recover regional groundwater level from continuous decline. The stepwise modeling framework can effectively reflect the annual variation of groundwater budget in irrigated areas, better simulate the response of groundwater depth to climate factors and human exploitation activities. |
| Key words: groundwater depth; stepwise modeling；future scenarios; groundwater exploitation; Sanjiang Plain |
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