| Cite this article: | 何虹,王巧娟,李亮,等.宁夏引黄灌区玉米趋势产量与气候产量分离方法的比较分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
| HE Hong,WANG QiaoJuan,LI Liang,et al.宁夏引黄灌区玉米趋势产量与气候产量分离方法的比较分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
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| Comparative Analysis of Methods for Separation Between Maize Trend Yield and Meteorological Yield of Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Area in Ningxia, China |
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HE Hong1,2, WANG QiaoJuan1,2, LI Liang1,2, CAI HuanJie1,2
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1.College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northwest A &2.F University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The correct assessment of the impact of meteorological change on crop yield must be bases on the premise of accurate meteorological yield. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how to explore a suitable method for long time series maize yield separation in Yellow River irrigation area.【Method】Based on the statistical data of maize yield for 1988 to 2019 from 6 counties of Yellow River Irrigation Area in Ningxia are used to analyze the rationality of different separation methods. Three separation methods are five -year moving average method, the quadratic exponential smoothing and the five-point quadratic smoothing to separate the actual yield for obtaining the trend yield and meteorological yield. The consistency correlation coefficient, the trend yield coincidence of actual yield trend conformity analysis method and the consistency of climate change characteristics in the same meteorological area can lead to the same rise and fall of meteorological yield were used as the evaluation criteria, and their applicability and rationality were compared and analyzed. Finally, as mentioned above, the selected method is calibrated by the rationality of the relationship between meteorological factors and yield.【Result】The trend yield can be well fitted by different methods. Compared with the average trend yield, almost all the consistency correlation coefficients are greater than 0.5. It suggests that there is no significant difference in trend fitting different methods. However, the trend yield series fitted by quadratic exponential smoothing method and five-point quadratic smoothing method can both truly reflected the actual yield affected by the changes in the levels of national productivity and national policy. This suggested that the goodness of fit for quadratic exponential smoothing method and five-point quadratic smoothing method with actual trend yield was best, whereas the goodness of for the five-year moving average method had the worst performance. When the basic phase of regional meteorological change characteristics at the same time, the relative meteorological yield separated by five-point quadratic smoothing method can better reflect the effect of inter-annual meteorological factors on the yield well, and the relative meteorological yield model established can reasonably reflect the relationship between meteorological factors and yield, which accords with the growth and development characteristics of maize.【Conclusion】Comprehensive analysis shows that the five-point quadratic smoothing method is more universal for this research area and can reflect the yield changes caused by meteorological factors. |
| Key words: maize; trend yield; meteorological yield; separation methods |
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