| Cite this article: | 袁宏川.基于SD的水环境安全预警演变趋势分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| YUAN Hongchuan.基于SD的水环境安全预警演变趋势分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| DOI： |
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| Analysis on the evolution trend of water resources safety early warning based on system dynamics |
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YUAN Hongchuan1,2,3,4,5,6
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1.College 2.of 3.Hydraulic 4.and 5.Environmental 6.Engineering
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the statistical data of Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2019, the water environment safety early warning indicator system was constructed from the four dimensions of water resources, society, economy, and ecological environment. The SD model was used to simulate and predict the evolution of the water environment safety early warning in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2030. Changes; through the set of current situation trends, economic development, green water saving, comprehensive coordination of 4 scenarios to compare and analyze the water environment safety early warning change trend under different scenarios. The research results show that: (1) The water environment warning level from 2010 to 2019 is between "medium warning and heavy warning", and the water environment is unevenly distributed in time and space and under-carrying; (2) the water environment warning level is medium under the current trend Police; the water environment alert level under the economic development mode is heavy alert; the water environment alert level under the green water saving and comprehensive coordination mode is no alert. |
| Key words: Water security; Early Warning; System Dynamics; Situational simulation |
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