| Cite this article: | 董海波,陈小平,冯绍元,等.模拟气候变化对极端干旱区棉花产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| DONG HAIBO,CHEN XIAOPING,FENG SHAOYUAN,et al.模拟气候变化对极端干旱区棉花产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Simulating the effects of climate change on cotton seed yield and water use efficiency in extreme arid region |
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DONG HAIBO, CHEN XIAOPING, FENG SHAOYUAN, ZHANG YOULIANG, WU HAO
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College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To explore the effects of climate change on cotton growth and yield and its key climate influencing factors in extreme arid areas.【Method】The Root Zone Water Quality Model-Version2 (RZWQM2) was calibrated and validated using cotton field data from Qira Oasis in Xinjiang in 2018. The effects of climate change (1960~2019) on cotton growth period, yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) were simulated by the validated RZWQM2. The key climate factors and cotton growth period and yield were analyzed using the correlations method.【Result】RZWQM2 simulated well in soil water content for each layer (except 0.15~0.25m), cotton growth and yield in oasis cotton field in extreme arid area, with average consistency index (IOA) > 0.75. The simulation results showed that the emergence, flowering, cracked B1 and maturity stage of cotton were delayed, approximately 1.1, 2.1,3.5 and 3.5d per decade, respectively. The simulated cotton seed yield and IWUE decreased by 45.95kg/hm2 and 0.13kg/mm/hm2 per decade, respectively. The results of correlation analysis showed that air temperature and solar radiation had significantly affected on cotton growth, while the minimum temperature was the dominant factor for cotton growth period, but the maximum temperature had a certain negative effect on cotton yield. The solar radiation was the key factor for cotton yield in this region. 【Conclusion】The results can provide a scientific guidance in dealing with the impacts of climate change on cotton production in Oasis agriculture. |
| Key words: RZWQM2; Climate change; Cotton production; IWUE; Oasis agriculture |
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