| Cite this article: | 杨入一,孔繁涛.河北省有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响效应---基于空间计量和门槛回归的双检验[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| yangruyi,kongfantao.河北省有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响效应---基于空间计量和门槛回归的双检验[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
|
| |
|
|
| This article has been：Browse 662Times Download 0Times |
|
|
|
| DOI： |
|
| The Effect of Effective Irrigation in Hebei Province on The Growth of County Agricultural Economy——Double Test Based on Spatial Measurement and Threshold Regression |
|
yangruyi1, kongfantao2
|
|
1.Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS;2.Institute of Special Animal and Plant Sciences of CAAS
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Hebei Province is the second largest agricultural province in terms of the total number of counties. The development of county-level agricultural economy is of great significance. However, its water resources are inherently insufficient, unevenly distributed in time and space, and vary greatly from year to year. And the contradiction of water between supply and demand is prominent. In 2017, the growth rate of agricultural output in Hebei Province slowed down and the intermediate consumption ratio rebounded. It is not clear whether the effective irrigation level was one of the factors restricting the growth rate of agricultural economy. 【Objective】Irrigation is the key to guaranteeing food production and agricultural quality. Effective irrigation is a solid foundation to ensure the continued development of the national economy. Exploring the impact of effective irrigation on county agricultural economic development is of great significance for promoting local agricultural quality and efficiency. 【Method】Based on the panel data of 170 districts and counties in Hebei Province from 2015 to 2017, this paper used the Moran's I index and the Getis-Ord Gi* index to calculate the spatial correlation and clarify the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the county agricultural economic development in Hebei Province. Spatial autoregressive and panel threshold regression models were used to explore the effect of effective irrigation in Hebei Province on the county's agricultural economic growth. 【Result】As a result, there are three conclusions as follows. Firstly, during the study period, the county agricultural economy in Hebei Province developed unevenly, but the distribution pattern was basically stable and in the stage of continuous improvement. Secondly, the results of the SDM model showed that the effective irrigation rate also inhibited the agricultural economic growth of the district and adjacent districts and counties. Thirdly, The results of the panel threshold regression model showed that with the two thresholds as the demarcation point, Hebei’s effective irrigation had a three-stage impact on the county’s agricultural economic growth: "obviously inhibited-continuously inhibited-obviously increased"; there were 166 districts throughout the study period in the middle transfer range, and the increase in the effective irrigation rate at this stage had a continuous inhibitory effect on the county's agricultural economic growth, which again verified the conclusion of the SDM model. 【Conclusion】The deficiencies of natural resources in Hebei Province made it difficult to develop and utilize water resources, natural disasters often affect irrigation benefits. And the investment in irrigation facilities construction was large, most counties were still in the stage of construction cost recovery. These were the main reasons for restricting the growth of county agricultural economy. In the future, while improving the utilization of water resources in Hebei, relevant government departments should strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy engineering facilities, improve water-saving irrigation technology and improve the operation and maintenance management system and long-term mechanism of irrigation projects, and formulate differentiated agricultural economic development policies for different natural resource endowments, county economies, and water source conditions to help improve the quality and efficiency of agriculture in Hebei. |
| Key words: Hebei; effective irrigation; county-level agricultural economy; spatial econometrics; double threshold effect |
|
|
|
|
|
|
