| Cite this article: | 张钦,刘赛艳,解阳阳,等.基于交叉验证法与马尔科夫链的年径流丰枯分类可靠性研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| ZHANG Qin,LIU Saiyan,XIE Yangyang,et al.基于交叉验证法与马尔科夫链的年径流丰枯分类可靠性研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| Reliability of Classification of Annual Runoff Wet-dry State Based on Cross-validation and Markov Chain |
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ZHANG Qin, LIU Saiyan, XIE Yangyang, XI Haichao
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College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】A method for testing the reliabilities of annual runoff wet-dry classification results is proposed to provide a scientific basis for the classification of annual runoff wet-dry states in a watershed. 【Method】 The reliability of annual runoff wet-dry classification is analyzed in terms of both stability and predictability, and the test method based on the cross-validation method and Markov chain is proposed. Taking the commonly used mean-standard deviation method (MSD), gray relation analysis (GRA) and set-pair analysis (SPA) as representatives, the stability and predictability of the classification results obtained by each method are investigated separately using the cross-validation method and Markov chain. The classification difference and transfer probability difference indices are built to evaluate the stability and predictability of different classification results. Finally, the annual runoff series from 1956—2021 at the upper reaches of the Yellow River at Tangnaihai station is used as an example for verification.【Result】(1) The results of different classification methods based on the cross-validation method and Markov chain have differences, which indicates that the stability and predictability of different methods in classifying and predicting annual runoff wet-dry states are different. (2) For Tangnaihai station, the classification difference index indicates that the GRA method is the most stable, followed by the SPA method, and the MSD method is the worst. Transfer probability differences indicates that the GRA method is the most predictable, the SPA method the next most predictable and the MSD method the worst. (3) Considering the stability and predictability of the classification methods, the GRA method is the most reliable method for classifying annual runoff abundance and depletion, followed by the SPA method, and the MSD method is the worst.【Conclusion】The reliability of different annual runoff wet-dry classification methods varies in the same watershed, and the method based on the cross-validation method and Markov chain can effectively test the reliability of the results of each classification method. |
| Key words: reliability of wet-dry classification; cross validation; Markov chain; gray relation analysis; set pair analysis |
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