| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示天山地区极端径流演变规律，预估不同气候变化情景下天山地区极端径流特征。【方法】基于Sen slope、 MK检验、Pettitt检验和概率分布函数，采用SWAT模型和GCM模式分析极端径流演变特征。【结果】①过去60 a，开都河流域年、夏、秋和冬季径流呈不显著增加趋势，春季径流呈显著增加趋势，且径流变化与降水的相关性大于与同期气温的相关性。②极端径流频率、强度和持续时间呈增加趋势，初洪时间呈显著推迟趋势。③Log-Pearson3函数对极端径流的模拟表现最优，50 a重现期洪水次数、高流量最长持续时间、峰值流量平均值重现水平分别为7.09次、79.04 d和180.04 m3/s。④未来气候变化情景下，洪水次数增加，极端强度（平均年最大流量）增大，持续时间（高流量最长持续时间、高流量平均持续时间）和平均强度（极端径流平均流量、峰值流量平均值）减小。开都河流域极端径流初洪时间呈提前趋势，且极端径流强度（极端径流平均流量、峰值流量平均值、平均年最大流量）重现水平最高和最低分别发生在SSP245和SSP370情景。【结论】气候变化对天山极端径流具有重要影响，未来会经历更频繁的极端径流事件和更为严重的单次特大洪水，研究结果对制定气候变化适应策略和水资源管理方案具有重要的指导价值。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化;极端径流; SWAT模型;天山;开都河 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2023353 |
| 分类号:P333，P467 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130512) |
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| Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Runoff in the Tian Shan Region: A Case Study of the Kaidu River |
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ZHENG Peng1, CHEN Yaning2, WANG Huaijun3
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1.College of Geography and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University;2.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS;3.School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai’an
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 This study aims to elucidate the evolving patterns of extreme runoff in the Tianshan region and to estimate the characteristics of extreme runoff under different climate change scenarios.【Methods】Employing the Sen slope，MK test, Pettitt test, and probability distribution functions, coupled with the SWAT model and GCM models, we conducted an analysis of the distinctive features in the evolution of extreme runoff. 【Results】① Over the past 60 years, the annual, summer, autumn, and winter runoff in the Kaidu River Basin exhibited a non-significant increasing trend, while spring runoff demonstrated a significant increasing trend. Additionally, the correlation between runoff changes and precipitation was found to be greater than that with contemporaneous temperature. ② The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme runoff showed an escalating trend, whereas the initial flood time exhibited a significantly delayed trend. ③The Log-Pearson3 function exhibited optimal performance in simulating extreme runoff, with a 50-year return period the number of flood events, the Maximum duration of spell events, and the Average spell peak being 7.09 times, 79.04 days, and 180.04 m3/s, respectively. ④ Under future climate change scenarios, the frequency of floods will increase, extreme intensity (The average annual maximum flow) will amplify, and the duration (Maximum duration of spell events, Average duration of spell events) as well as average intensity (Average spell volume, Average spell peak) will decrease. The initial flood time of extreme runoff in the Kaidu River Basin displayed an advancing trend, and the recurrence levels of extreme runoff intensity (Average spell volume, Average spell peak, The average annual maximum flow) were highest and lowest under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios, respectively.【Conclusion】The study concludes that climate change significantly influences extreme runoff in the Tianshan region, leading to more frequent occurrences of extreme runoff events and more severe instances of single large floods in the future. These findings hold crucial guiding implications for the development of climate change adaptation strategies and water resource management plans. |
| Key words: Climate change; Extreme runoff; SWAT model; Tian Shan; Kaidu River |
