| 摘要: |
| 【目的】耕地与粮食安全息息相关,探究耕地时空演变规律,对保障粮食安全至关重要。【方法】以天山北坡城市群为研究区,运用土地转移矩阵、重心迁移模型等模型方法探究天山北坡城市群耕地时空演变,并基于PLUS模型分析未来不同情景耕地演变动态趋势。【结果】(1)天山城市群耕地面积持续增加,40年间增幅7930.80 km2,草地和未利用地是新增耕地的主要来源。城市群各地区耕地变化存在差异,总体变化动态较低,但天山区、克拉玛依区、奎屯市等地区耕地变化程度剧烈。(2)通过分析城市群耕地空间演变可知,40年来,耕地重心与标准差椭圆偏移方向一致,总体向西北偏移,耕地空间分布趋于聚集,连片程度日益改善。(3)情景预测表明,自然发展情景下,天山北坡城市群2030年耕地面积预计将增加1758.42 km2,而生态保护和城镇发展情景相比自然发展情景减少143.56 km2、1359.45 km2。【结论】近40年天山北坡城市群耕地面积明显增加。未来城市群应结合生态保护和城镇发展措施,合理规划和利用地区耕地资源,保障粮食安全和实现区域可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 耕地；PLUS模型；时空演变；破碎化；天山北坡城市群 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025260 |
| 分类号:无 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学(42301353 ) |
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| Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of cultivated land in urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains based on PLUS model |
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Wei Xi1, Yang Dazhi2, Zhu Kangwen3
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1.School of Land Sciences Technology,China University of Geosciences;2.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences;3.School of Smart City,Chongqing Jiaotong University
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| Abstract: |
| [Objective] Cultivated land is closely related to food security. It is very important to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of cultivated land to ensure food security. [Methods] Taking the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as the research area, this paper explored the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains by using land transfer matrix, gravity center migration model and other model methods, and analyzed the dynamic trend of cultivated land evolution in different scenarios in the future based on the PLUS model. [Results] (1) The area of cultivated land in Tianshan urban agglomeration continued to increase, with an increase of 7930.80 km2 in 40 years. Grassland and unused land were the main sources of new cultivated land. There are differences in the change of cultivated land in various regions of the urban agglomeration, and the overall change is low, but the change of cultivated land in Tianshan District, Karamay District and Kuitun City is severe. (2) By analyzing the spatial evolution of cultivated land in urban agglomerations, it can be seen that in the past 40 years, the center of gravity of cultivated land has shifted to the northwest in the same direction as the standard ellipse, and the spatial distribution of cultivated land tends to gather, and the degree of contiguity has been improving. (3) Scenario prediction shows that under the natural development scenario, the cultivated land area of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is expected to increase by 1758.42 km2 in 2030, while the ecological protection and urban development scenarios are reduced by 143.56 km2 and 1359.45 km2 compared with the natural development scenario. [Conclusion] In the past 40 years, the area of cultivated land in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains has increased significantly. In the future, urban agglomerations should combine ecological protection and urban development measures to rationally plan and utilize regional cultivated land resources, ensure food security and achieve regional sustainable development. |
| Key words: cultivated land; PLUS model; space-time evolution; fragmentation; urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains |
