| 引用本文: | 宋瑞明,王卫光,张翔宇,等.江苏省水稻高温热害发生规律及未来情景预估[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(1):. |
| SONG Ruiming,WANG Weiguang,ZHANG Xiangyu,et al.江苏省水稻高温热害发生规律及未来情景预估[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(1):. |
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| 摘要: |
| 基于江苏省1961—2010年历史气象资料和CanESM2模式SDSM统计降尺度后的RCP情景数据，根据高温热害气象指标，分析了过去和未来江苏省水稻生育期内高温热害事件及其起始日期的发生规律和变化特征。结果表明，1961—2010年，各等级热害发生次数空间分布规律基本一致，均由东北向西南递增；2021—2070年3种RCP 情景下，高温热害事件均呈增加趋势，以RCP 8.5情景增幅最大。高温热害事件起始时间变化不大，均在7月下旬。 |
| 关键词: 统计降尺度； 气候变化； 水稻； 高温热害 |
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| Occurrence Regularity of Rice Heat Injury and Projection for Future Scenarios in Jiangsu Province |
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SONG Ruiming, WANG Weiguang, ZHANG Xiangyu, DING Yimin
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College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on historical weather data from 1961 to 2010 and future climate data generated by CanESM2 simulation from 2021 to 2070 under RCP emission scenarios, the frequency and occurrence dates of heat stress in different grades during rice growth period in Jiangsu province were analyzed. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of the total number of times and the frequency of different grades during rice growth period for the period of 1961—2010 were consistently increasing from northeast to southwest. Under three different scenarios, the heat injury events will increase relative to the period of 1961—2010 and the increases were more under RCP 8.5 scenario than other two scenarios. In addition, the heat stress often occured in late July. |
| Key words: SDSM; climate change; rice; heat stress |
