基于水资源干旱指数的阿克苏绿洲干旱预警模式及其应用

孙可可; 陈青青; 陈超群; 冯 杰

引用本文:	孙可可,陈青青,陈超群,等.基于水资源干旱指数的阿克苏绿洲干旱预警模式及其应用[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):.
	SUN Keke,CHEN Qingqing,CHEN Chaoqun,et al.基于水资源干旱指数的阿克苏绿洲干旱预警模式及其应用[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):.

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基于水资源干旱指数的阿克苏绿洲干旱预警模式及其应用
孙可可，陈青青，陈超群，冯杰
河海大学，南京 210098；中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室，北京 100038；新疆兵团勘测设计院有限责任公司，乌鲁木齐 830001

摘要:

阿克苏绿洲地区干旱灾害频发，为对该地区干旱灾害进行预警，建立了以水资源干旱为基础的阿克苏绿洲干旱预警模式。在阿克苏绿洲水循环特征分析的基础上，以水资源干旱指标作为绿洲干旱指数的评估指标，识别了阿克苏绿洲干旱的主要控制因子，并在阿克苏绿洲供需水关系分析的基础上，建立了其与先导性气象要素的定量关系，将其转化为具有常规观测资料的气象要素，构建了以气温为核心的干旱预警指标。结果表明，应用该预警指标对阿克苏绿洲经行干旱预警，一个月预警准确率达到了86.8%，具有较高的精度。

关键词: 阿克苏绿洲；水资源干旱；干旱预警模式；西北干旱区

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A Drought Index-based Model and Its Application to Aksu Oasis

SUN Keke, CHEN Qingqing, CHEN Chaoqun, FENG Jie

College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; XPCC Surveying&Designing Institute(Group)Co，Ltd，Urumqi 830002，China

Abstract:

Drought occurs frequently in the oasis in Aksu, and a model was developed in this paper to provide warning of droughts in this region. The model was based on analysis of water circulation in oasis of Aksu. The drought index was used as the assessment index to identify the main factors that determine the occurrence of droughts in Aksu oasis, from which we established the quantitative relationship between some meteorological variables based on availability of and demand for water resource in this region. These factors were then related to meteorological data which can be directly measure dusing temperature as the key drought warning index. The results showed that the accuracy of the drought-warning model is 86.8% in monthly basis.

Key words: Aksu oasis; water resources drought; drought warning model; arid region of northwest China