| 引用本文: | 冯 星,孙东永,胡维登,等.Copula函数在渭河流域干旱分析中的应用研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(12):. |
| FENG Xing,SUN Dongyong,HU Weideng,et al.Copula函数在渭河流域干旱分析中的应用研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(12):. |
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| 摘要: |
| 采用Gumbe-Hougaard、Frank和Clayton Copula函数，以渭河流域干支流22个气象站点1960—2015年的日降水资料分别构造干旱历时和干旱烈度、干旱历时和烈度峰值以及干旱烈度和烈度峰值之间的二维关系，从而对渭河流域1960—2015年的干旱特性进行分析。结果表明，二维Archimedean Copula函数可很好地描述干旱多变量的联合概率分布，且拟合效果较好；总的来说渭河流域干旱趋势明显，干旱严重程度与干旱历时的变化趋势均不显著,发生较长时期持续干旱的频率高、重现期短，因此当地相关单位应加强干旱的预报和管理。 |
| 关键词: 流域； 联合分布； Copula函数； 拟合优度； 重现期 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.12.018 |
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| Application of the Copula Function in Frequency Analysis of Drought in Weihe River Basin |
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FENG Xing, SUN Dongyong, HU Weideng, GUO Jianqing
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Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University , Nanjing 210098, China
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| Abstract: |
| In order to reveal the change of drought, by constructing multivariate joint distribution for drought and analysis. There drought variables, i.e., drought duration, drought severity and drought peak, were selected from long sequence of (1950—2010) daily rainfall data for 22 meteorological stations in the Weihe river basin in China. Fitting degrees were evaluated to select Gumbel-Hougaard Copula、 Frank Copula and Clayton Copula and two-dimension joint distributions of drought variables were analyzed based on them include of drought duration, drought severity and drought peak in Weihe river basin. The Archimedean Copulas of two dimensions can describe the joint probability of drought and multi variables well, and the fitting effect is very good; the drought trend change significantly,the frequency is high of the drought lasted a long time in Weihe river basin, so local relevant units should strengthen drought forecast as well as management. |
| Key words: river basin; joint distribution; Copulas function; goodness of fit; return period |
