| 引用本文: | 郭金路,谷 健,扬筑筑.辽西地区潜在蒸散发敏感性分析及变化成因研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(1):121-128. |
| GUO Jinlu,GU Jian,YANG Zhuzhu.辽西地区潜在蒸散发敏感性分析及变化成因研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(1):121-128. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】了解辽西地区潜在蒸散发敏感性及蒸散发变化成因。【方法】基于辽西地区13个气象台站1965—2015年的基础气象资料，依据FAO-56 Penman-Monteith法估算了辽西地区近50 a的蒸散发（ET0），采用Mann-Kendall检验法对ET0及各气象要素的变化趋势进行了检验，同时基于敏感性系数法探讨了ET0对各气象要素的敏感性，并定量揭示了引发ET0变化的主导因子。【结果】1965—2015年，辽西地区年均ET0以12.5 mm/10 a的速率显著降低，均值为1 007.6 mm/a，空间上由西南向东北呈低—高—低的分布格局；最低温度和最高温度表现为极显著升高趋势，风速和太阳辐射表现为极显著降低趋势，相对湿度未发生明显变化；辽西地区ET0对各气象要素的敏感性依次为：相对湿度>最高温度>风速>太阳辐射>最低温度，且ET0与相对湿度变化呈负相关，而与其他要素变化均为正相关；最低温度、最高温度的升高和相对湿度的降低引发区域ET0变动为正贡献，而太阳辐射和风速的降低则为负贡献，且贡献率最大的为风速，最小的为相对湿度。【结论】风速的降低是引发辽西地区ET0降低的主导因子。 |
| 关键词: 蒸散发； 敏感性； 贡献率； 辽西地区 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2016.0225 |
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| Sensitivity and Attribution of Potential Evapotranspiration in Western Liaoning |
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GUO Jinlu, GU Jian, YANG Zhuzhu
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Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Study the relationship between ET0 and meteorological factors in a region with specific climate.【Method】 Based on the meteorological dataset during 1965 to 2015 from the thirteen selected meteorological stations of the western Liaoning, the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method was used to estimate the reference evapotranspiration （ET0）. The variation trend of meteorological variables and ET0 were examined with the Mann-Kendall trend test. Besides, according to sensitivity coefficient, sensitivity of ET0 to meteorological variables and the dominate factor which affects the variation of ET0 were analyzed. 【Result】 The results showed the average ET0 in western Liaoning was 1 007.6 mm/a, decreased at the rate of 12.5 mm/10 a in 1965—2015 and observed a low-high-low distribution pattern from the southwest to northeast. Daily maximum and minimum temperature were significantly increased. Wind speed and solar radiation were significantly decreased and relative humidity didn’t significantly change. Sensitivity of ET0 to meteorological variables were ranked as: relative humidity> maximum air temperature>wind speed>solar radiation>minimum air temperature. And ET0 was negatively correlation with relative humidity, while other meteorological variables showed positive correlation. Contribution rate analysis showed the increased minimum, maximum temperature and decreased relative humidity impacted positively to ET0 variation, and the decreased wind speed and solar radiation impacted negatively. The largest contribution rate to ET0 variation was wind speed, while the relative humidity was lowest. 【Conclusion】 In general, the decreased wind speed was the dominant factor to the ET0 variation in western Liaoning. |
| Key words: potential evapotranspiration; sensitivity; contribution rate; western Liaoning |
