| 引用本文: | 许婧璟,靳晓言,强皓凡,等.新疆艾比湖流域潜在蒸散变化特征与成因分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(2):89-94. |
| XU Jingjing,JIN Xiaoyan,QIANG Haofan,et al.新疆艾比湖流域潜在蒸散变化特征与成因分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(2):89-94. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】寻找新疆艾比湖蒸散主要影响因子。【方法】根据新疆艾比湖流域内6个代表气象站1960―2015年逐日气象数据，采用辐射校正的Penman-Monteith模型计算了潜在蒸散量（ET0），采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall法、Morlet小波分析等方法分析了ET0周期变化规律，同时基于通径分析原理的指标敏感性方法分析了ET0的变化成因。【结果】 1960―2015年艾比湖流域年ET0多年平均值为956.1 mm，气候倾向率为-29.89 mm/10 a，呈显著下降趋势（p<0.001）；四季ET0表现为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季，各季随年份序列均呈下降趋势，其中夏季ET0下降趋势最为显著，夏、春二季ET0对全年潜在蒸散的相对贡献最大；年ET0在1986年发生下降突变，降幅为10.52%。ET0在28 a的周期振荡最强烈，为时序变化的第一主周期，第二、三主周期分别为15 a和8 a；风速对ET0的通径系数为0.736，对回归方程估测可靠程度E的总贡献为0.577。【结论】风速下降是艾比湖流域ET0下降的主要因子，其次为相对湿度、净辐射、降水和最高气温。 |
| 关键词: 潜在蒸散； 艾比湖流域； 小波分析； 通径分析 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0316 |
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| Variety Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Potential Evapotranspiration in the Ebinur Lake Basin in Xingjiang |
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XU Jingjing, JIN Xiaoyan, QIANG Haofan, DAI Hui, LIANG Chuan
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College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Find the main factor of ET0. 【Method】 According to the daily meteorological data from 6 representative meteorological stations in the Xinjiang Ebinur Lake Basin from 1960 to 2015, the potential evapotranspiration （ET0） was calculated by radiation-corrected Penman-Monteith model. The climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the periodic change rule of potential evapotranspiration. Meanwhile, the causes of ET0 change were analyzed by index sensitivity method based on path analysis principle. 【Result】 The annual average of ET0 in the Ebinur Lake basin from 1960 to 2015 was 956.1 mm with a significant decreasing trend of -29.89 mm/10 a（p<0.001）；The ET0 of the four seasons decreased with the sequence of summer>spring>autumn>winter, and the ET0 each season presented a downward trend with year sequence. The decreasing trend of ET0 was the most significant in summer. The ET0 of summer and spring made the biggest relative contribution to annual values；There was a significant decrease abrupt point of ET0 in 1986 with a decline of 10.52%. ET0 had a strongest intense oscillation in the 28-year period, which was the first major cycle of sequential change, while the second and third main cycles were 15 years and 8 years respectively；The path coefficient of wind speed on ET0 was 0.736, the total contribution to estimate reliability of regression equation was 0.577. 【Conclusion】 The decrease in wind speed is the main factor for the decline of ET0 in the Ebinur Lake Basin, followed by relative humidity, net radiation, precipitation and maximum temperature. |
| Key words: evapotranspiration; basin; wavelet analysis; path analysis |
