| 引用本文: | 陈柏丽,朱永华,王春艳,等.淮北平原降水量和参考作物蒸散量时空演变规律研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(6):109-116. |
| CHEN Baili,ZHU Yonghua,WANG Chunyan,et al.淮北平原降水量和参考作物蒸散量时空演变规律研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(6):109-116. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究淮北平原降水量和参考作物蒸散量的时空演变规律。【方法】基于5个气象站1955—2015年的气象数据，采用M-K检验法、Kendall秩次相关检验法、R/S分析法、M-K突变检验法、Yamamoto法、滑动t检验法，并结合ArcGIS，分析了降水量和参考作物蒸散量的时空演变规律。【结果】淮北平原年降水量整体呈不显著的上升趋势，未来仍将保持这种微弱的上升趋势；参考作物蒸散量整体呈显著的下降趋势，未来仍将维持这种明显的下降趋势。降水量变化较大的年份为1966、1998、1999、2000、2007、2013年，参考作物蒸散量变化较大的年份为1998年和2004年。经检验，这些年份均没有达到气候突变的要求。1955—2015年，降水量高值中心出现在蚌埠和阜阳的概率各占50%，低值中心出现在砀山的概率为83%；参考作物蒸散量高值中心出现在亳州的概率为33%，低值中心出现在蚌埠的概率为67%。因此，淮北平原各地的灌溉任务可据此作一定的调整，亳州和砀山地区的灌溉应加强，蚌埠和阜阳的灌溉可适当减少。【结论】1955—2015年，降水量和参考作物蒸散量都没有发生突变，但相对而言，参考作物蒸散量的波动较大。未来一段时间内降水量将增加，参考作物蒸散量将减少，淮北平原未来出现涝渍的概率加大，因此，未来的排涝任务可能会加重。 |
| 关键词: 淮北平原； 降水量； 参考作物蒸散量； 数理统计法； ArcGIS |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0447 |
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| Spatiotemporal Variation of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Huaibei Plain |
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CHEN Baili, ZHU Yonghua, WANG Chunyan, LYU Haishen
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College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Weter Resources and Water Conservancy Engineering, Hohai University,Nanjing 210098, China; China Water International Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Beijing 100070, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 This paper is to calculate the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation and evapotranspiration in Huaibei Plain over the past six decades. 【Method】 The spatiotemporal change in the reference crop evapotranspiration was calculated based on the meteorological data measured from five weather stations in the region from 1955 to 2015, using ArcGIS, the M-K test and the R/S analysis method, the Kendall rank correlation and the M-K mutation test method, as well as the Yamamoto method and the sliding t-test method. 【Result】 From 1955 to 2015, the precipitation in this region increased steadily, accompanied by a declined reference evapotranspiration. The wettest years were 1966, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2013, and the reference evapotranspiration endured dramatic changes in 1998 and 2004 although the climate in these two years was comparable with in other years. Analysis of all data from 1955 to 2015 revealed that the probability of Bengbu and Fuyang being the wettest region was 50%, while Dangshan becoming the driest area was 83%. For evapotranspiration, the probability it peaked in Bozhou was 33% and troughed in Bengbu was 67%. These results suggested that irrigation schedule in the Huaibei Plain should be adjusted in that more irrigations should be considered for Bozhou and Dangshan and less for Bengbu and Fuyang. 【Conclusion】 There were no dramatic change in precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1955 to 2015, although evapotranspiration fluctuated noticeably. It is predicted that the precipitation in this region will continue to increase and the evapotranspiration will decrease in the coming years, rendering the region vulnerable to waterlogging or even flooding. Therefore, improving drainage should be the priority for this region to maintain its agricultural production. |
| Key words: Huaibei Plain; precipitation; reference crop evapotranspiration; mathematical statistics; ArcGIS |
