| 摘要: |
| 【目的】明确清镇市1985—2015年气候变化特征与粮食产量的相关性。【方法】利用清镇市1985—2015年逐年平均气象数据（风速、海平面气压、降水、平均气温、日照时间、相对湿度、蒸发量），通过M-K检验、小波分析、HP滤波、RDA等方法，分析了气候变化特征及其与产量间的相关性。【结果】气温升高极显著，1994年、1997年出现突变，其他因子呈降低或减少趋势，日照时间突变最频繁；各因子振荡周期不一，变化周期以28 a最突出，目前除气温处于偏高期外，其他因子均处在偏低期；气候变化对粮食产值的影响有正有负，正影响最大值出现在2009年，在1990年和2011年负作用力达到最大。【结论】Monte Carlo Test表明，气候因子均与产量之间显著相关（P<0.05），粮食产量的43.3%能被选取的气候因子解释，气候产量与降水量、气温以及相对湿度正相关，与风速、海平面气压、蒸发量、日照时间负相关。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化； 粮食产量； 相关性 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20180685 |
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| Characteristics of Climate Change in Qingzhen from 1985 to 2015 and Its Relativity with Grain Yield |
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ZHANG Hao, XU Xiao, ZHANG Xuebin,JIN Zhaogui, CHEN Yu，XU YI,YUAN Shifeng,WANG Shenghong, LIU Yupeng, DENG Tingfei，QIN Jie, YUAN Shuo，XU Rengxiang
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1.Meteorological Bureau of Qingzhen, Qingzhen 551400, China; 2.Country-First level Agrometeorological Test Station in Guiyang, Qingzhen 551400, China; 3. Meteorological Bureau of Guiyang, Guiyang 550002, China; 4. Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Climate, Guiyang 550002, China； 5.Key Laboratory of Chemistry for Natural Products of Guizhou Province and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guiyang 550014, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to get the characteristics of climate change and the correlation between meteorological factors and grain yield from 1985 to 2015 of Qingzhen.【Method】Based on the annual average meteorological data (wind speed, sea level pressure, precipitation, temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity and evaporation) of Qingzhen, the characteristics of climate change in recent 30 years were obtained by M-K test and wavelet analysis. Firstly, the grain yield was separated by HP filter, and then the correlations between yield and climatic factors were calculated by RDA. 【Result】The temperature increased significantly, and there were sudden change in 1994 and 1997. Other factors showed decreasing trends, and the sudden change of sunshine hours occurred the most frequently. The oscillation period of each factor was different, and the change period was the most prominent in 28 years. At present, except for the temperature, other factors were in the low stage. There were positive and negative impacts on grain output from climate change. The maximum positive impact occurred in 2009, and the greatest negative impact occurred in 1990 and 2011. 【Conclusion】Monte Carlo test showed that there was a significant correlation between climatic factors and yield (P<0.05). 43.3% of grain yield could be explained by selected climatic factors. Climatic yield was positively correlated with precipitation, temperature and relative humidity. It was negatively correlated with wind speed, sea level pressure, evaporation and sunshine duration. |
| Key words: climatic variation； grain yield； relativity |
