| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究哈萨克斯坦水资源利用与经济社会发展的匹配关系，促进中亚干旱地区人口-资源-经济的可持续发展。【方法】根据基于数列的匹配度计算方法，确定了哈萨克斯坦1995—2015年16个州（市）水资源利用与人口、GDP的匹配水平。【结果】①不同部门用水量与GDP、人口的时间匹配度的变化趋势不同，水资源利用量与GDP匹配度的波动变化大于其与人口的匹配度。②1995—2015年，总体上各部门水资源利用量与其GDP的匹配度先上升后下降，与其人口的匹配度则逐年上升，至“相对匹配”的稳定状态；其中，克孜勒奥尔达州、南哈萨克斯坦州和阿拉木图市的匹配水平较差。③水资源利用总量与人口的匹配水平空间相关性不显著，与GDP的匹配水平空间相关性较显著，整体呈现西部优、南部劣，且逐渐由西向东转移的态势。【结论】应针对具体地级州（市）的实际情况采取不同措施，使水资源利用与经济社会协调发展。 |
| 关键词: 哈萨克斯坦； 水资源； 人口； GDP； 时空匹配； Moran’s I指数 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20190166 |
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| Study on the Spatial-Temporal Matching of Water Resources with Population, GDP in Kazakhstan |
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ZHU Wei, ZHOU Hongfei, CHAI Chenhao
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1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 2. Fukang Station of Desert Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fukang 831505, China; 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to explore the matching relationship between the water resources utilization and economic-social development in Kazakhstan, and promote the sustainable development of population-resource-economy in the arid regions of Central Asia.【Method】With the calculation method of matching degree based on the data sequence, this paper determined the matching level of water resources utilization and economic-social development (population, GDP) of 16 states (cities) in Kazakhstan from 1995 to 2015.【Result】①Variation tendency of the matching degree between water consumption by sector and GDP, population were different. The fluctuation of matching degree between water resources utilization and GDP was greater than that of population. ②From 1995 to 2015, in general, the matching degree between the utilization of water resources by sub-sector and its GDP has risen first and dropped afterwards, while and population, the matching degree rose year by year to the “relative matching” status. Among them, the matching degrees in Karaganda, South Kazakhstan and Almaty were poor. ③The spatial correlation of matching degree between the total water resources utilization and population was indistinctive, but and GDP, the matching degree was significant. In addition, the overall situation was that the west was superior and the south was inferior, and gradually changed from the west to east in Kazakhstan. 【Conclusion】 Different measures should be taken according to the actual situation of specific prefectures (cities) to improve the water resources allocation capacity, and make water resources utilization and economic-social coordinated development. |
| Key words: Kazakhstan; water resources; population; GDP; spatial-temporal matching; Moran’s I index |
