| 引用本文: | 王 蒙,刘春伟,邱让建,等.江苏省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,39(4):124-134. |
| ,et al.江苏省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,39(4):124-134. |
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| 江苏省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响因素分析 |
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王 蒙，刘春伟，邱让建，张 佩，张方敏
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1.南京信息工程大学 江苏省农业气象重点实验室，南京 210044；2.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京 210044；3.南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院，南京 210044; 4.江苏省气象局，南京 210044
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】参考作物蒸散量是水分循环和能量循环的重要组成部分，研究其变化特征及影响因素可以为该地区合理利用水资源，高效水分管理及农业生产布局提供参考。【方法】利用1961—2018年江苏省60个站点的风速、温度、相对湿度和日照时数等逐日数据计算了逐日蒸散量（ET0），并采用气候倾向率、敏感性分析、通径分析、贡献率分析等方法对江苏省ET0的时空变化及影响因素进行分析。【结果】 ①江苏省1961—2018年平均ET0为976.8 mm，区域整体ET0的变化幅度为-0.44 mm/10 a，共有28个站点ET0呈增加趋势（47%），主要分布在无锡以及苏州等苏南区域，共有11个站点ET0增加趋势显著（p<0.05），其中无锡、太仓、靖江地区ET0气候倾向率较大，分别为18.6、19.0、30.0 mm/10 a。共有32个站点ET0呈减小趋势（53%），主要分布在连云港、徐州、宿迁等苏北地区，共有16个站点ET0减小趋势显著（p<0.05），其中新沂、泗洪、灌南地区ET0减小趋势较大，分别为-19.2、-23.1、-23.2 mm/10a；②丰县（1 007.4 mm）、徐州（1 041.1 mm）以及西连岛（1 130.3 mm）区域为ET0的高值中心；③ET0对平均温度、日照时间、风速为正敏感，对相对湿度为负敏感，且ET0对相对湿度最敏感。平均温度、日照时间、风速、相对湿度与ET0决策系数分别为0.09、0.33、-0.02、0.29。敏感系数空间分布上，ST与SWS纬向分布特征都较明显；④贡献率分析表明，主要影响因素为风速的有22个站点，均分布在苏北地区，其中沛县、泗阳、新沂站风速对ET0变化贡献较大，分别为-13.44%、-12.52%、-12.49%，主要影响因素为相对湿度的有38个站点，主要分布在苏南地区，其中丹阳、靖江、昆山站相对湿度对ET0变化贡献较大，分别为18.47%、18.57%、20.87%，全区平均温度和日照时间不对ET0变化产生主要影响。【结论】苏北地区ET0变化的主要影响因素是风速，且风速贡献率为负，苏南地区ET0变化的主要影响因素是相对湿度，相对湿度贡献率为正。 |
| 关键词: 参考作物蒸散量；敏感性分析；贡献率；江苏省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2019394 |
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| Temporal and Spatial Variations of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration and Its Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province |
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WANG Meng1, 2, 3, LIU Chunwei1, 2, 3*, QIU Rangjian1, 2, 3，ZHANG Pei1, 2, 3,ZHANG Fangmin1, 2, 3
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1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing 210044, China; 3. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 4. Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210044, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The evapotranspiration of reference crops is an important part of water cycle and energy cycle. The study of its variation characteristics and influencing factors can provide reference for rational utilization of water resources, efficient water management and agricultural production layout in this area. 【Method】This study calculated the daily evapotranspiration (ET0) by using the data of wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours from 1961 to 2018 of 60 locations in Jiangsu province. ,and using methods of climate trend rate, sensitivity analysis, Kriging space interpolation and contribution rate analysis, the present paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variations and the influencing factors of ET0 in Jiangsu. 【Result】①Rhe mean ET0 was 976.8 mm and the change of the whole area ET0 was -0.439 mm/10 a from 1961 to 2018 in Jiangsu province. 28 of the locations (47%), mainly located in Wuxi and Suzhou, showed an increasing trend of ET0. There were significant increases of ET0 in 11 sites, among which the climate tendency rates in Wuxi, Taicang and Jingjiang area were 18.58 mm/10 a,18.97 mm/10 a, 29.65 mm/10 a, respectively. 32 of the locations (53%), mainly distributed in Lianyungang, Xuzhou, Suqian, presented a decreasing trend of ET0 with a significant decreasing trend (p<0.05) in 16 sites. As characteristic areas, the climate tendency rates The climate tendency rates in Xinyi, Sihong and Guannan decreased by -19.22 mm/10 a, -23.07 mm/10 a, -23.15 mm/10 a, respectively. ②Fengxian county (1 007.4 mm), Xuzhou (1 041.1mm) and Xilian island (1 130.3mm) are the high value centers of ET0; ③ET0 is sensitive to average temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed and relative humidity. The decision coefficients of average temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity and ET0 are 0.09, 0.33, - 0.02 and 0.29 respectively. And ET0 is the most sensitive to relative humidity with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.516 (p<0.01). The zonal distribution characteristics of ST and SWS are obvious in the spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficient. ④The analysis of contribution rate indicated that wind speed and relative humidity had a great contribution to the change of ET0. There were 22 locations, evenly distributed in the north Jiangsu province, mainly influenced by wind speed. Among them, the wind speed of Peixian, Siyang and Xinyi contributed greatly to the change of ET0 with values of -13.44%, -12.52%, -12.49%, respectively. And 38 sites, mainly located in the south areas, were mainly influenced by the relative humidity. As characteristic areas, Danyang, Jingjiang and Kunshan contributed greatly to the change of ET0 with values of 18.47%, 18.57%, 20.87%, respectively. In addition, the average temperature and sunshine hours in the whole region have no main effect on the change of ET0. 【Conclusion】The main influencing factor of ET0 change in Northern Jiangsu is wind speed, and the contribution rate of wind speed is negative. The main influencing factor of ET0 change in southern Jiangsu is relative humidity, and the contribution rate of relative humidity is positive. |
| Key words: reference crop evapotranspiration; sensitivity analysis; contribution rate analysis; Jiangsu Province |
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