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| 引用本文: | 李 兵,文 强,章新平,等.湖南省资水流域汛期暴雨气候特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,39(12):136-144. |
| ,et al.湖南省资水流域汛期暴雨气候特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,39(12):136-144. |
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| 湖南省资水流域汛期暴雨气候特征分析 |
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李 兵，文 强，章新平，杨 令，刘电英，杨乐清
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1.湖南省益阳市气象局，湖南 益阳 413000；2.湖南师范大学 资源与环境科学学院，长沙 410081
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】更好地掌握湖南省资水流域汛期暴雨气候特征。【方法】利用经验正交函数分解、全局Moran’s I指数、线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验分析了湖南省资水流域14个国家气象站1980—2016年汛期（4—9月）暴雨日数、暴雨量、暴雨集中度、暴雨集中期的时空分布与演变特征，基于Γ分布及“雨日-无雨日”演变的一阶Markov链模型，从理论上计算了流域14个国家气象站汛期30 d内出现暴雨的概率。【结果】①资水流域汛期年均暴雨日数（暴雨量）空间分布上游较少，中下游较多，年均暴雨日数最高的可达5.4 d，最小的仅为1.9 d，年均暴雨日数（暴雨量）与地形关系密切，迎风坡处的站点年均暴雨日数（暴雨量）较大，背风坡、盆地处的站点其年均暴雨日数（暴雨量）较小；②暴雨日数（暴雨量）EOF分解存在全局型、南北型2种主要模态，以全局偏少出现年份最多；20世纪80年代为暴雨日数（暴雨量）偏少期，20世纪90年代以后为偏多期，20世纪90年代为显著偏多期，中下游地区偏多特征尤其明显，偏少期时暴雨空间分布具有随机性，偏多期时暴雨空间分布正相关性显著；③流域平均暴雨日数、平均暴雨量均呈增加趋势，其气候增长率分别为0.1 d/10 a、13.1 mm/10 a，年际变化中存在明显突变，突变节点在1987年前后；④流域汛期暴雨日数分布上高度集中，平均暴雨集中度高达0.82，暴雨集中期为6月26日，平均暴雨集中度有增加趋势，平均暴雨集中期有提前趋势；⑤流域各气象站汛期10 d内流域暴雨发生概率较低，20、30 d内暴雨发生的平均概率分别为23.1%、32.2%，暴雨中心安化发生概率最高，分别为39.1%、46.0%，汛期30 d内暴雨发生概率空间分布与平均暴雨日数分布类似，暴雨日数大的站点暴雨发生概率较高。【结论】地形不仅能影响暴雨的空间分布，也能影响暴雨集中度和集中期，湖南省资水流域暴雨日数（暴雨量）时空变化上整体具有较好的一致性，但年均暴雨日数大的地区更容易发生偏涝或偏旱。 |
| 关键词: 湖南省；资水流域；汛期；暴雨 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020026 |
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| Characteristic Analysis of the Heavy Rains During Monsoon Season in Zishui Basin of Hunan Province |
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LI Bing, WEN Qiang, ZHANG Xinping, YANG Ling, LIU Dianying, YANG Leqing
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1. Yiyang Meteorological Bureau, Yiyang 413000, China; 2. Hunan Normal University College of Resources and Enviromental Sciences, Changsha 410081, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Hunan is a province in south China characterized by frequent occurrence of heavy rains. While spatiotemporal variation in storms across China has been studied intensively, there is still a lack of quantitative analysis of them.【Objective】The objective of this paper is to take the Zishui river basin as an example, presenting a method to systematically study the characteristics of heavy rains during monsoon season (April-September) in typical river basins in Hunan province.【Method】The analysis was based on data measured from 14 weather stations across the Zishui basin in 1980—2016. The spatiotemporal variation in the rainstorms was analysed using the EOF decomposition, global Moran Index, Mann-Kendall test. The probability of storms in each weather station was calculated based on statistical theory.【Result】①Duration of the heavy rains varied spatially across the basin, with heavy rains in the middle of the basin lasting longer than that in other parts. ②The EOF decomposition found a basin-scale storm mode and a north-south mode. The global Moran index showed less rainstorms in the 1980s while more in the 1990s. Spatially, storms in the middle and lower reaches of the basin were more than that in other parts. ③Duration of the storms and storm intensity had both increased at an annual rate of 0.1day and 13.1millimetre, respectively. ④The storms in the basin were temporally uneven, with the mean precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and the mean precipitation concentration period (PCP) being 0.82 and 26 June respectively. ⑤The probability of having a storm occur in the basin in 10 days during the monsoon season was low, and the probability of having a heavy storm in 20 and 30 days was 23.1% and 32.2% respectively. On average, Anhua county is most likely to see storms with the probability of having a storm in 20 and 30 days being 39.1% and 46.0% respectively. |
| Key words: Hunan province; Zishui river basin; monsoon season; heavy storm |
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