| 引用本文: | 张惠茹,许 航,宋健峰.西北地区农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(8):129-135. |
| ZHANG Huiru,XU Hang,SONG Jianfeng.西北地区农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(8):129-135. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素，优化水资源管理，促进区域农业可持续发展。【方法】通过构建灌溉用水量与其他要素（包括水资源以外的生产资料，农业生产技术和农业劳动力投入）之间的非替代性的农业生产函数，推导农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素，以西北5省为例，利用基准模型和二元选择模型验证农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素。【结果】①通过理论模型推导发现，农作物产量和水分生产率是影响农业灌溉用水反弹的2个因素，且农作物产量的增加对农业灌溉用水反弹有正向效应，灌溉水分生产率对农业灌溉用水反弹有反向的影响；②西北5省的所有市域中，约65%存在农业灌溉用水反弹，即西北地区普遍存在着农业灌溉用水反弹；③在基准模型中，农作物产量的增加量每增加1%，农业灌溉用水反弹会增加0.094 3%~0.611 3%；其他条件不变的条件下，水分生产率每增加1%，农业灌溉用水反弹会减少0.927 3%~0.990 1%。二元选择模型的结果影响方向与基准模型一致。【结论】农业生产要素变化所引起的农作物产量增加导致了对水资源的新增需求，部分抵消了节水技术能实现的预期节水量。 |
| 关键词: 农业灌溉；用水反弹；节水政策；西北5省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020416 |
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| What Caused the Irrigation Water Use Rebound in Northwest China? |
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ZHANG Huiru, XU Hang, SONG Jianfeng
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College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Agriculture is the largest water-use sector in China and reducing agricultural water use is hence critical to ameliorating the impact induced by water shortage and sustaining its economic development. One problem facing implementation of water-saving irrigation and other agronomic practices is that these technologies might fail to meet the designed targets, resulting in what is called “irrigation water use rebound”.【Objective】This paper aims to examine the factors behind the irrigation water use rebound with a view to providing guidance to help optimize water resource allocation and sustain water utilization in implementing water-saving policies.【Method】The analysis was based on an agricultural production function by integrating irrigation water use with other factors including agricultural production technologies and labor input. We then build a benchmark platform comprising pooled regression model, determinant effect model, random effect model, and binary choice model to analyze the factors which were most likely to have led to the irrigation water use rebound at metropolitan scale in the five provinces in northwestern China.【Result】Crop yield and irrigation water productivity affected irrigation water use rebound the most. The increase in crop yield had a positive effect on irrigation water use rebound, while increasing irrigation water productivity dampens this rebound. About 65% of cities in northwestern China have seen irrigation water use rebound, meaning that the increase in irrigation water use is common in this region. The results calculated from the benchmark platform indicated that irrigation water use rebound increased by 0.094 3%~0.611 3% for every 1% increase in crop yield; when other conditions were the same, irrigation water use rebound was reduced by 0.927 3%~0.990 1% for every 1% increase in irrigation water productivity. The results calculated by the binary choice model were consistent with that from the benchmark platform, indicating that the above results were robust.【Conclusion】Irrigation water use rebound in northwestern China was induced by the increase in crop yield after implementation of other improved agricultural practices. Water-saving policies in the future should focus on disseminating water-saving technologies, improving irrigation water productivity, and helping farmers to appreciate the importance and benefits of reducing agricultural water use. |
| Key words: agricultural irrigation; irrigation water use rebound; water-saving policies; five provinces in northwest of China |
