| 引用本文: | 任建成,王峰,卢晓宁.基于SPEI的山东省干旱时空变化特征及趋势分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(12):127-135. |
| REN Jiancheng,WANG Feng,LU Xiaoning.基于SPEI的山东省干旱时空变化特征及趋势分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(12):127-135. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究山东省干旱的时空变化规律。【方法】使用山东省25个国家气象观测站1981—2020年气温、降水月值数据，计算了各站点季节尺度和年尺度标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），通过线性回归、泰森多边形、空间插值、小波分析等方法，对山东省干旱时空变化特征进行了分析研究。【结果】①山东省秋季降水量呈不显著减少趋势，其他季节及全年降水量都呈不显著增加趋势；各季节、全年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势。②山东省季节及年时间尺度以干湿状态交替出现为主，夏季及全年的干湿状态变化相对比较平缓。③山东省春季、秋季干旱覆盖面积呈不显著的增长趋势，夏季、冬季及全年的干旱覆盖面积呈不显著的下降趋势。④山东省春季干旱频率大体上由鲁西南、鲁东南向北逐渐上升；夏季和全年各地干旱频率差别较小，没有很明显的走向；秋季干旱频率大体上由北向南逐渐上升；冬季干旱频率大体上由鲁西南和鲁中山区逐渐向西北和东南上升。⑤山东省春季干旱变化的主周期为10、29、4、17 a，夏季主周期为20、4、7、10 a，秋季主周期为14、6、25、8、3 a，冬季主周期为5、24、16、10 a，年尺度主周期为23、14、4、10、7 a。【结论】山东省气温上升趋势显著，降水变化趋势不显著，干湿状态交替出现，且干湿变化具有明显的周期性。 |
| 关键词: 干旱；标准化降水蒸散指数；变化特征；趋势分析；山东省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021310 |
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| Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in Shandong Province Analyzed Using the Standardized Precipitation-evapotranspiration Index |
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REN Jiancheng, WANG Feng, LU Xiaoning
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Global warming has been resulting in more extreme weather events such as drought and flooding, and understanding their severity and frequency is important for improving management to mitigate their detrimental impact. Taking Shandong province as an example, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation of droughts over the past 40 years in the province.【Method】Monthly temperature and precipitation measured from 1981 to 2020 at 25 meteorological stations across the province were collected. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at each station was calculated at both seasonal and annual scales, from which we calculated the spatiotemporal variation of droughts in the province using linear regression, Tyson polygon, spatial interpolation and wavelet analysis.【Result】①Summer precipitation had been in decline while annual precipitation had been in increase, though neither was at significant level. Meanwhile, seasonal and annual temperature had both been in increase at significant level. ②At seasonal and annual scales, dry and wet weather occurred alternately, and the summer alternation annual alternation remained almost unchanged over the 40 years. ③The areas suffering spring and summer droughts had been in increase while areas hit by autumn and winter throughs had been in decline, though neither was at significant level. ④The frequency of spring drought increased gradually from the southwest-southeast to the north, though spatial difference in summer and annual droughts across the province was small. The frequency of autumn drought increased gradually from the north to the south, while the frequency of winter drought increased gradually from the southwest to the northwest-southeast. ⑤Seasonally, the identified drought periods are 10, 29, 4 and 17 a in spring, 20, 4 ,7 and 10 a in summer, 14, 6, 25, 8 and 3 a in autumn, 5, 24, 16 and 10 a in winter. Annually, the periods were 23, 14, 4, 10 and 7 a.【Conclusion】Temperature rise in Shandong province was significant, but the change in precipitation was not significant, with dry and wet occurring alternately. |
| Key words: drought; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; trend analysis; Shandong provinc |
