| 引用本文: | 刘 波,樊成芳,束龙仓,等.气候变化与人类活动对三江平原典型区地下水埋深影响预估[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(8):63-69. |
| LIU Bo,FAN Chengfang,SHU Longcang,et al.气候变化与人类活动对三江平原典型区地下水埋深影响预估[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(8):63-69. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预估未来发展情景下三江平原典型区地下水埋深对气候变化和人类活动的响应。【方法】分析三江平原典型区地下水埋深动态特征，采用分期建模的方式对三江平原典型区非灌溉季（10月—次年4月）和灌溉季（5—9月）分别建立支持向量机回归模型进行地下水埋深模拟，利用CMIP6发布的气候变化和灌区开采量变化情景，预估2020—2050年该区地下水埋深的响应。【结果】2001—2017年三江平原典型区地下水埋深多年平均增幅为0.2 m/a，非灌溉季主要受降水影响，灌溉季主要受灌区开采活动影响。与现状年（2001—2017年）比较，在温室气体高排放SSP585情景下，三江平原未来年降水量增加26.76 mm，若灌区开采量在2025年前逐年增加5%，灌溉季地下水埋深将增加17.11 cm，非灌溉季减小1.35 cm；在中等发展SSP245情景下，未来降水量增加38.83 mm，若灌区开采量在2020—2050年期维持多年平均不变，灌溉季地下水埋深将减小9.50 cm，非灌溉季减小1.77 cm；在可持续发展SSP126情景下，未来年降水量增加26.56 mm，若开采量在2025年前逐年减少5%，地下水埋深在灌溉季将减小19.76 cm，非灌溉季减小0.92 cm。【结论】开采活动是影响三江平原地下水埋深的主要因素，未来气候变化的影响主要显现在非灌溉季，限制开采措施能够有效恢复区域地下水位。 |
| 关键词: 地下水埋深；分期建模；未来情景；地下水开采；三江平原 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021381 |
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| Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Groundwater in Sanjiang Plain |
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LIU Bo, FAN Chengfang, SHU Longcang, WANG Wenpeng, HU Xin
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College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】 Sanjiang Plain is located in the northeast Heilongjiang Province, formed by alluvial and diluvial deposits of Heilong, Wusuli River and Songhua Rivers. Its fertile soils make it one of most important grain production bases in China. Irrigation consumes more than 90% of extracted groundwater in these regions. To sustain its groundwater usage, it is important to understand the impact of climate change and androgenetic activities on groundwater. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue.【Method】 The analysis was based on groundwater dynamics in typical regions across the plain, and the stepwise support vector regression (SVR) was established to simulate groundwater dynamics in non-irrigated season (October to next April) and irrigated season (May to September). Climate change scenarios were taken from the CMIP6 and the change in groundwater extraction for irrigation were applied to evaluate the response of groundwater depth to climate change from 2020 to 2050. 【Result】 From 2001 to 2017, the depth of groundwater table in typical areas had risen at a rate of 0.2 m/a, largely due to precipitation in non-irrigation season and pumping in irrigated season. Compared with 2001—2017, the annual precipitation increased by 26.76 mm under the SSP585 scenario. If groundwater exploitation increased by 5% annually until 2025, the depth of groundwater table would increase by 17.11 cm in irrigation season and decrease by 1.35 cm in non-irrigation season. Under the medium development scenario of SSP245, the annual precipitation may increase by 38.83 mm in average. If the amount of exploitation remains unchanged on average for many years until 2050, groundwater depth will decrease by 9.50 cm in irrigated season and 1.77 cm in non-irrigated season. Under the sustainable development scenario SSP126, the annual precipitation may increase by 26.56 mm in average. If groundwater exploitation is reduced by 5% annually until 2025, the depth of groundwater table will rise by 19.76 cm in irrigated season and 0.92 cm in non-irrigated season.【Conclusion】Groundwater exploitation is the dominant determinant of groundwater change in Sanjiang plain, and climate change affects groundwater in non-irrigation season more than in irrigation season. The rational use of groundwater can effectively alleviate continued decline in regional groundwater table. The stepwise modeling we proposed can effectively model annual variation in groundwater budget in irrigated areas, and simulate the response of groundwater to climate change and anthropogenic activities. |
| Key words: groundwater depth; stepwise modeling; future scenarios; groundwater exploitation; Sanjiang Plain |
