| 引用本文: | 魏 宣,王 宁,周明通,等.气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化影响定量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(8):80-86. |
| WEI Xuan,WANG Ning,ZHOU Mingtong,et al.气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化影响定量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(8):80-86. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】深入了解克里雅河径流变化的潜在机制及驱动因素。【方法】基于趋势分析、相关性分析及突变分析，分别采用双累积曲线法及累积量斜率变化率比较法，计算气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化的贡献率。【结果】1958—2015年克里雅河流域年平均气温和年径流量呈一定的显著增加趋势，年降水量呈不显著增加趋势，而潜在蒸散发呈显著递减趋势；通过Mann-Kendall突变检验法、累积距平法和有序聚类法，综合确定克里雅河流域径流突变点为1999年；以1958—1999年为基准期，使用双累积曲线法计算得出2000—2015年气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为59.16%、40.84%，通过累积量斜率变化率比较法得出贡献率的结果分别为79.03%、20.97%。【结论】因此，气候变化是影响克里雅河径流变化的首要因素，人类活动是次要因素。 |
| 关键词: 双累积曲线法；克里雅河流域；气候变化；人类活动；累积量斜率变化率比较法 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022080 |
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| Combined Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Kriya River |
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WEI Xuan, WANG Ning, ZHOU Mingtong, GUO Yuchuan
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1. Xinjiang University College of Geography and Remote sensing Sciences, Urumqi 830017, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology Ministry Education Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Kriya River is one of most important rivers in Xinjinag, and the purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change and human activity on its runoff.【Method】The study was based on trend analysis, correlation analysis and abrupt change analysis; the contribution of climate change and human activities to the change in the runoff was calculated using the double cumulative curve method and the comparison of slope rate of change of cumulative volume, respectively.【Result】The mean annual temperature and runoff showed significant increase from 1958 to 2015, annual precipitation did not show significant variation, while the potential evapotranspiration had decreased significantly. The sudden change in the runoff occurred in 1999, as estimated by the Mann-Kendall method, cumulative distance level method and the ordered clustering method. Using the data from 1958 to 1999 as reference, the contribution of climate change and human activities to the runoff calculated using the double cumulative curve method for 2000—2015 was 59.16% and 40.84%, respectively, and those calculated by the cumulative slope rate were 79.03% and 20.97%, respectively. 【Conclusion】Climate change is the primary factor influencing the change in the runoff of the Kriya River, followed by human activities. |
| Key words: double cumulative curve method; Kriya River Basin; climate change; human activities; comparison of the slope rate of change of cumulative volume |
