| 引用本文: | 来和鑫,张泽中,王 飞,等.1960—2019年中国流域尺度干旱时空演变特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(8):122-129. |
| LAI Hexin,ZHANG Zezhong,WANG Fei,et al.1960—2019年中国流域尺度干旱时空演变特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(8):122-129. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】从流域尺度对中国进行干旱时空演变特征分析。【方法】本文以标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI作为干旱指数，采用极点对称模态分解方法ESMD将SPEI时间序列进行趋势与周期分解，对全国流域尺度上的干旱时空演变特征进行研究。【结果】①1960—2019年各个流域的干旱时间变化特征具有差异性，其中内陆河流域的干旱增加趋势最为明显，SPEI线性倾向率为-0.192/10a；②ESMD分解结果表明全国干旱呈增加趋势，且第一主周期为2.07 a，第二主周期为5 a；③轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱、干旱的频率均值分别为13.5%、10.4%、5.5%、2.3%、31.8%，强度均值分别为0.74、1.23、1.67、1.86、1.18。④ENSO与干旱的关系最为密切，而NAO对干旱的影响并不显著。【结论】除东南诸河流域外，各流域干旱均呈增加趋势，且遥相关因素也会对干旱发生产生一定影响。 |
| 关键词: 干旱；时空演变；标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI; 中国 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022051 |
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| Spatiotemporal Variation in Catchment-Scale Droughts from 1960 to 2019 Across China |
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LAI Hexin, ZHANG Zezhong, WANG Fei, FENG Kai, ZHU Xiaomeng
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1. School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;
2. Guizhou Quality and Safety Centre of Water Conservancy Engineering Construction, Guiyang 550002, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Drought is an abiotic stress affecting agricultural production in almost every country across the world. Understanding its spatiotemporal variation is essential to improving water management under climate change. The purpose of this paper to analyze the variation in droughts in the main catchments over the past 60 years (1960—2019) across China.【Method】 The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used as the drought index; the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method was used to decompose the periods and trend of the SPEI time series, from which we calculated the spatiotemporal variation in drought. 【Result】①The temporal changes in drought varied with sub-basins from 1960 to 2019, and the most noticeable drought increase occurred in the continental river basins, with the SPEI linear tendency rate being -0.192/10 a. ②The ESMD results showed that the drought had been in increase across China, with the first and second periodic cycles being 2.07 years and 5 years respectively. ③The average occurring frequency of mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, extreme drought and drought was 13.5%, 10.4%, 5.5%, 2.3% and 31.8%, with their associated average intensity being 0.74, 1.23, 1.67, 1.86 and 1.18, respectively. ④ENSO was closely related to drought, while NAO did not show significant impact on drought. 【Conclusion】 Except for southeastern China, basins in other regions have seen an increase in droughts over the past 60 years. |
| Key words: drought; spatio-temporal patterns; SPEI; China |
