| 引用本文: | 李子威,唐湘玲,黎力菊.漓江上游径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(10):98-105. |
| LI Ziwei,TANG Xiangling,LI Liju.漓江上游径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(10):98-105. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究漓江流域径流演变特征及其影响因素。【方法】以上游河段大溶江为例，根据该流域1980—2019年各气象站和水文站的长期监测数据，采用趋势检验法、突变检验法、周期分析法等方法分析了径流及气温、降水量的变化趋势、突变特征及周期规律。在确定气温、降水量与径流的相关性的基础上，建立了气温、降水量与径流的多元线性方程。【结果】漓江流域径流呈减少趋势但不显著，突变年份是2018年，在40 a的尺度下漓江流域经历了4个丰-枯变换周期。漓江流域降水量呈增加趋势，突变年份为2015年，降水展现出4次偏多-偏少交替。年均气温呈显著增加趋势，其倾向率为0.38 ℃/10 a，突变年份为2016年；整体上发生了2个冷-暖周期变换，1984、2011年为偏冷期中心年份，1981、2019年为偏暖期中心年份。在气温突变中存在1个震荡周期，其周期为6 a。【结论】预测未来漓江流域在40 a尺度下由丰水期转为枯水期；漓江流域降水未来为少水期；漓江流域气温在40 a尺度下处于偏暖阶段。该流域径流突变点由土地利用的变化、防洪补水工程的修建、气候变化等因素共同所致，降水与气温发生突变时间与华南地区气候转变相一致。 |
| 关键词: 径流；突变检验；影响因素；周期性；漓江流域 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022033 |
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| Temporal Change in Runoff and Its Determinants in Upper Reach of Lijiang River Basin |
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LI Ziwei, TANG Xiangling, LI Liju
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Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Climate change and anthropogenic activities have combined to change flow in many rivers and catchments in the world. This paper analyzes the change in runoff of the Lijiang Basin in southwestern China, as well as its determinants. 【Method】The analysis was based on data measured from 1980—2019 from meteorological and hydrological stations along the Dayun river in the upstream of the basin. The temporal trend, abrupt changes and periodicity of the runoff, temperature and precipitation were analyzed using the Pettitt mutation test, Mann Kenddall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The correlation between them was calculated using the multivariate linear regression equation. 【Result】The runoff in the basin had been in decline though not at a significant level. There was an abrupt runoff change in 2018. From 1980 to 2019, the basin had experienced four drying - wetting cycles. The precipitation in the basin had been increasing and experienced an abrupt change in 2015. Approximately four periodicities were identified for the precipitation. The average annual temperature had increased significantly at 0.38 ℃/decade from 1980 to 2019, with an abrupt change occurring in 2016. There are two cold-warm cycles in the studied period, with 1984 and 2011 being the cold years, and 1981 and 2019 being the warm years. The period for temperature was 5~7 a. 【Conclusion】Our analysis showed that the Lijiang basin will become increasingly dry. The basin will enter a warm stage in a 40- decade period. The abrupt change in runoff was due to the change in land usage, construction of flood control and water replenishment projects, climate change and other factors, while the abrupt change in precipitation and temperature is due to the climate change as experienced by other regions in South China. |
| Key words: runoff; mutation test; influencing factors; periodicity; Lijiang River |
