| 引用本文: | 杨入一,孔繁涛,曹姗姗,等.河北省有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响效应—基于空间计量和门槛回归的双检验[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(11):129-138. |
| YANG Ruyi,KONG Fantao,CAO Shanshan,et al.河北省有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响效应—基于空间计量和门槛回归的双检验[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(11):129-138. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】灌溉是保障粮食产量和农业质量的关键，有效灌溉是确保国民经济持续向好发展的坚实基础，探究有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响对推进地方农业提质增效具有重要意义。【方法】基于2015—2017年河北省170个区县的面板数据，通过Moran’s I指数、Getis-Ord Gi*指数计算和厘清河北省县域农业经济增长水平的空间相关性和时空演化特征，并运用空间计量和面板门槛回归模型探究河北省有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响效应。【结果】研究期内河北省县域农业经济增长水平冷热不均，但分布格局基本稳定，存在显著空间相关性，整体处于持续提升阶段；空间杜宾模型结果表明，有效灌溉同时抑制了本区县及邻接区县的农业经济增长；面板门槛回归模型结果表明，以两个门槛值为分界点，河北省有效灌溉对其县域农业经济增长存在“显抑-持抑-显增”三阶段影响效应；研究期内有166个区县处于中转移“持抑”区间，再次验证了空间杜宾模型的结论。【结论】河北省相关政府部门应在提高水资源利用的同时加强农田水利工程设施建设、提升节水灌溉技术和健全完善灌溉工程的运行维护管理体系和长效机制，并因地制宜地制定区域差异化推动农业经济发展政策，助力农业提质增效转型升级。 |
| 关键词: 河北省；有效灌溉；县域农业经济；空间计量；双门槛效应 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022145 |
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| Impact of Effective Irrigation on County-level Agricultural Economic Growth in Hebei Province Calculated Using Spatial Measurement and Threshold Regression |
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YANG Ruyi, KONG Fantao, CAO Shanshan, SUN Wei, AN Min
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1. Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
2. Institute of Special Animal and Plant Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changchun 130112, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】Hebei province is the second largest agricultural province in terms of agricultural counties. Improving county-level agricultural economy is hence important for developing the provincial economy. This, however, is held back by scarcity and uneven distribution of its water resources. Effective irrigation has been proposed as a solution to this dilemma, but it is unknown if this could slow down the economic growth as suspected over the past few years. The objective of this paper is to elucidate the impact of effective irrigation on agricultural economy at country level.【Method】 The analysis is based on data collected from 2015 to 2017 from 170 districts and counties across the province. The Moran’s I index and the Getis-Ord Gi* indexes are used to calculate the spatial correlation and clarify the spatiotemporal evolution of the agricultural economy in these counties/districts. Spatial autoregressive and panel threshold regression models are used to analyze the effect of effective irrigation on agricultural economy.【Result】Agricultural economy is uneven between these counties, but its spatial distribution pattern remains stable, all showing a continuous improvement. SDM model shows that the counties/districts which had implemented effective irrigation not only inhibited their own agricultural economy but also their adjacent neighbour. Panel threshold regression model shows that with the two thresholds taken as the demarcation point, the effective irrigation had a three-stage impact on agricultural economic growth: noticeably inhibited, continuously inhibited, and noticeably increased. There are 166 districts/counties which are in the middle transfer range, at which an increase in effective irrigation had a continuous inhibitory effect on their agricultural economy. The deficiencies of natural resources make it difficult to develop and utilize water resources, and natural disasters often affect irrigation benefits. The investment in irrigation facilities is large and most counties are still in recovering the construction costs. These are the main reasons behind the slowed agricultural economic growth in most of these counties. While constructing water conservancy engineering facilities is essential to improving water resource utilization, other methods such as developing water-saving irrigation technologies, improving management and agricultural policies is also helpful to improve quality and efficiency of agricultural production.【Conclusion】The analysis shows that implementation of effective irrigations by some counties in Hebei province has a negative impact on their agricultural economy, and the underlying reasons vary. |
| Key words: Hebei; effective irrigation; county-level agricultural economy; spatial econometrics; double threshold effect |
