| 摘要: |
| 【目的】干旱严重影响吉泰盆地粮食产量，研究江西省吉泰盆地1990—2020年旱情时空变化，为吉泰盆地地区抗旱减灾提供理论依据。【方法】利用1990—2020年降水数据和潜在蒸散发数据计算月尺度SPEI1、季尺度SPEI3、年尺度SPEI12指数，通过MK突变检验进行趋势分析；结合因旱粮食损失数据计算因旱粮食损失率（Loss index due to drought for grain, Li指数），从气象干旱和农业干旱2个角度探讨吉泰盆地干旱时空演变特征，并划分为5个干旱等级。【结果】SPEI时空分布规律为：①1990—2020年，月尺度（0.000 4/10 a）、年尺度（0.014 8/10 a）趋于干旱化，以轻旱和中旱为主，未通过显著性检验；季尺度春季（0.029 6/10 a）、夏季（0.007 9/10 a）和冬季（0.007 6/10 a）趋于干旱化，秋季（0.017 6/10 a）趋于湿润化，四季干旱变化均未通过显著性检验，干旱多发生于夏秋冬三季，秋季无极旱现象发生。②空间上，月尺度下，井冈山市、泰和县最易发生干旱；季尺度下，安福县最易发生夏旱，遂川县最易发生秋旱；年尺度下安福县、吉安县、井冈山市最易发生干旱。③因旱粮食损失率计算下，吉泰盆地旱灾发生频率67.74%，以中旱（38.71%）为主，季节上以夏旱和秋旱为主，吉安县为春旱、夏旱和冬旱易发区域。【结论】吉泰盆地整体呈干旱化趋势，旱情加剧，研究结果对吉泰盆地抗旱减灾具有重要信息参考价值。 |
| 关键词: 标准化降水蒸散指数；因旱粮食损失率；气象干旱；农业干旱 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024225 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Spatiotemporal variations of meteorological and agricultural drought in the Jitai Basin from 1990 to 2020 |
|
LIU Yanyi, WANG Linqiang, CHEN Jiahui
|
|
1. China Railway Water Conservancy and Hydro Power Planning and Design Group Limited, Nanchang 330029, China;
2. Jiangxi Hydraulic Structures Engineering Technology Research Center, Nanchang 330029, China;
3. School of Water Resources Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The Jitai Basin, the second-largest grain-producing basin in Jiangxi Province, is highly vulnerable to drought. Understanding its spatiotemporal drought variations is critical for developing effective mitigation strategies and enhancing water resource management in the region.【Method】The analysis was based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data measured from meteorological stations in the basin from 1990 to 2020. These data were used to calculate the monthly, seasonal, and annual Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Spatiotemporal variations in SPEI were assessed using the Mann-Kendall trend test. Additionally, the Li Index was calculated, based on crop yield loss due to drought, to evaluate agricultural drought severity. Drought severity was categorized into five levels, and both meteorological and agricultural drought variations were examined.【Result】①From 1990 to 2020, the basin exhibited increasing trends in light to moderate aridity at both monthly (0.000 4/10 a) and annual (0.014 8/10 a) scales, though these trends were not statistically significant. Seasonally, aridity increased in spring (0.029 6/10 a), summer (0.007 9/10 a), and winter (0.007 6/10 a), while autumn showed a significant increasing trend in wetness (0.017 6/10 a). Drought events primarily occurred in summer, autumn, and winter, with no extreme drought events observed in autumn. ② Spatially, Jinggangshan City and Taihe County were the most prone to monthly drought. Anfu County experienced the highest frequency of summer drought, while Suichuan County was most affected by autumn drought. Annually, Anfu County, Jian County, and Jinggangshan City were identified as the most drought-prone regions. ③ The Li Index indicated that the overall frequency of drought events in the Jitai Basin was 67.74%, with moderate droughts accounting for 38.71%. Summer and autumn were most frequently affected by drought, with Ji’an County particularly vulnerable during spring, summer, and winter.【Conclusion】Although drought in the Jitai Basin has shown an increasing trend over the past three decades, the change was not statistically significant. These findings provide valuable insights for developing region-specific strategies to mitigate drought impacts in the basin. |
| Key words: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); Loss index due to drought for grain(Li); meteorological drought; agricultural drought |
