| 引用本文: | 王 楠,张凤燃,刘姝芳,等.河套灌区水-粮食-生态耦合协调演变与驱动要素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(10):145-154. |
| WANG Nan,ZHANG Fengran,LIU Shufang,et al.河套灌区水-粮食-生态耦合协调演变与驱动要素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(10):145-154. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究河套灌区“水-粮食-生态”系统耦合协调发展有助于推动灌区可持续高质量发展。【方法】构建河套灌区“水-粮食-生态”系统评价指标体系，采用熵权法分析计算各指标权重，通过耦合协调度模型评估河套灌区2009—2022年“水-粮食-生态”系统的耦合协调度，利用M-K突变检验分析耦合协调度的时间突变点，并采用多因素归因法进行驱动力分析。【结果】①河套灌区“水-粮食-生态”系统的综合评价指数呈上升趋势。②2009—2022年河套灌区“水-粮食-生态”系统基本处于稳定的间点，2019年突变前后各子系统均处于高水平耦合状态，系统耦合协调度从2009年的0.688增长到2022年的0.844，代表协调发展的初级水平逐步过渡到协调发展的良好水平。③2019年为系统耦合协调度的突变时间点，突变前耦合协调度上升的驱动力相近，突变后生态子系统成为主要的推动力。【结论】该研究可以为面向灌区粮食和生态可持续发展的水资源管理提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 灌区；水-粮食-生态；耦合协调；驱动因素；突变检验：多因素归因法 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025048 |
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| Coordination and drivers of water-food-ecology nexus in the Hetao Irrigation District |
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WANG Nan, ZHANG Fengran, LIU Shufang, WANG Youzhi
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1. College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3. Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou 450003, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The conflicts in water use between agriculture and maintaining ecological function pose a challenge in the Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia. Excessive water-saving agriculture may cause the water-food-ecological nexus to lose balance. This paper evaluates how to coordinate the water-food-ecological nexus to support sustainable and high-quality development in the district.【Method】We developed a comprehensive evaluation index to analyze the water-food-ecology nexus in the district. The weights for subsystems in the nexus were determined using the entropy weighting method. The degree of coordination from 2009 to 2022 for all three subsystems was assessed using a coupling coordination model, in which the abrupt changes in the coordination were detected using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method. The driving forces in the coupling coordination were analyzed using a multi-factor attribution approach.【Result】① The comprehensive evaluation index of the water-food-ecology nexus showed an increasing trend during the study period. ② From 2009 to 2022, the nexus remained largely stable, with all three subsystems showing high level of coupling prior to an abrupt change in 2019. From 2009 to 2022, the coupling coordination degree increased from 0.688 to 0.844, changing from primary level to well-coordinated level. ③Before the abrupt change in 2019, the driving forces of the three subsystems were similar, while after the abrupt change, the ecological subsystem became the dominant factor driving the increase in the coupling coordination.【Conclusion】We provide a systematic assessment of the water-food-ecological nexus in the Hetao Irrigation District, helping improve water resource management and develop sustainable and ecologically friendly agriculture in the district. |
| Key words: Hetao Irrigation District; water, food and ecology; coupled coordination; driving factors; abrupt variation: multifactorial attribution approach |
