| 引用本文: | 汤雯君,惠 磊,孙栋元,等.基于Budyko假设的疏勒河流域蒸散发
时空变化与归因分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):58-69. |
| TANG Wenjun,HUI Lei,SUN Dongyuan,et al.基于Budyko假设的疏勒河流域蒸散发
时空变化与归因分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):58-69. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】蒸散发是水循环和能量循环的核心环节，研究疏勒河流域蒸散发时空变化和归因分析可为掌握区域水循环规律提供技术支撑。【方法】以疏勒河流域为研究区，基于流域1972—2022年潘家庄、昌马堡、党城湾3个水文站数据资料，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Budyko假设的弹性系数法对流域蒸散发突变性和变化归因进行研究，量化降水量、潜在蒸散发和下垫面参数对蒸散发变化的贡献率。【结果】①1972—2022年，潘家庄、党城湾和昌马堡站3个站点年蒸散发量、潜在蒸散发和实际蒸散发均呈上升趋势，分别在1987、1979、1988年发生突变，3个站点潜在蒸散发在基准期分别增加了47.61、164.46、42.95 mm。②1972—2022年，潘家庄、党城湾和昌马堡站3个站点年蒸散发量变化趋势不同，其中潘家庄站潜在蒸散发量变化率为1.28 mm/a，实际蒸散发量变化率为-0.13 mm/a；党城湾站潜在蒸散发量变化率为0.05 mm/a，实际蒸散发量变化率为0.34 mm/a；昌马堡站潜在蒸散发量变化率为0.81 mm/a，实际蒸散发量变化率为0.66 mm/a。③流域降水量变化对昌马堡、潘家庄、党城湾站蒸散发贡献率分别为37.62%、90.47%、15.21%，潜在蒸散发对蒸散发的贡献率则分为15.14%、19.91%、33.83%，下垫面参数的贡献率则分为77.52%、210.38%、149.04%。蒸散发对下垫面因素最为敏感，降水量次之，潜在蒸散发最小。【结论】疏勒河流域1972—2022年年蒸散发呈显著上升趋势，蒸散发量整体呈东南高、西北低的空间分布格局。下垫面因素是影响蒸散发的主导驱动因素，人类活动对流域蒸散发的影响持续增强；气候因素是影响蒸散发的次要因素，其中降水量对蒸散发的影响高于潜在蒸散发。 |
| 关键词: Budyko假设；疏勒河流域；潜在蒸散发；时空变化；归因分析 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025123 |
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| Spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of evapotranspiration in the Shule River Basin |
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TANG Wenjun, HUI Lei, SUN Dongyuan, LI Shizhu, WANG Xingfan,
WU Lanzhen, CUI Yanqiang, MA Yali, SHU Heping
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1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. Management Bureau of Water Resources in Danghe River Basin, Jiuquan City, Jiuquan 735000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key process in water and energy cycles, influencing water availability, productivity, as well as water resource management in both natural and managed ecosystems. Understanding its spatiotemporal variation and driving factors can help in achieving sustainable water management. This paper analyzes the variation of ET and the underlying driving factors in the Shule River Basin in northwestern China.【Method】Using hydrological data measured from 1972 to 2022 at Panjiazhuang, Changmabao, and Dangchengwan stations, we analyzed the abrupt changes in ET and its underlying drivers using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Budyko-based elasticity coefficient method, from which we further evaluated the contributions of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and land surface changes to variations in ET. 【Result】①From 1972 to 2022, annual ET, PET and actual ET at all three stations showed an increasing trend, with abrupt changes detected in 1979, 1987 and 1988. During the baseline period, PET increased by 47.61 mm, 164.46 mm and 42.95 mm at Panjiazhuang, Dangchengwan and Changmabao station. ② Changes in annual ET varied among stations. At Panjiazhuang, PET increased by 1.28 mm/a while actual ET decreased by 0.13 mm/a; at Dangchengwan, PET increased by 0.05 mm/a and actual ET increased by 0.34 mm/a; at Changmabao, PET increased by 0.81 mm/a and actual ET increased by 0.66 mm/a. ③ The contribution of precipitation, PET and land surface to the variations of ET at Changmabao, Panjiazhuang and Dangchengwan station was 37.62%, 90.47% and 15.21%; 15.14%, 19.91% and 33.83%; and 77.52%, 210.38% and 149.04%, respectively. ET was most sensitive to land surface changes and least to PET, with precipitation in between.【Conclusion】From 1972 to 2022, annual ET in the Shule River Basin increased significantly. Spatially, it increased from the southeast to the northwest. Land surface was the dominant driver of ET variations, reflecting the increased impact of human activities on basin hydrology. |
| Key words: Budyko hypothesis; Shule River Basin; potential evapotranspiration; spatiotemporal variation; attribution analysis |
