| 引用本文: | 丽娜·托库,刘 楠,门宝辉,等.京津区域外调水与当地水的对冲模型及其应用[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(12):127-136. |
| LINA·Tuoku,LIU Nan,MEN Baohui,et al.京津区域外调水与当地水的对冲模型及其应用[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(12):127-136. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】缓解区域供用水的结构性矛盾，应对人类活动与气候变化的协同影响，构建科学的水资源调度模型。【方法】基于万元产值取水量概念设置缺水损失最小的目标函数，针对供水区与受水区同丰、同旱、丰旱不同等4种情景构建干旱风险函数，最终构建考虑干旱风险影响的外调水与当地水的水量对冲模型，并按照用水户重要性和效益性进行水量调度，确保水资源的公平高效分配。通过对比不同情景下的对冲模型与标准调度策略（SOP，Standard Operation Policy）模型的供水效果，揭示本文构建的对冲模型在缓解水资源短缺、降低缺水损失方面的显著成效，为京津区域可持续发展提供科学参考。【结果】①在相同情景设定下，融入干旱风险的对冲模型相较于SOP模型可有效降低缺水事件发生的频率。②对冲模型采取提前限水措施能够有效减缓缺水事件的恶化进程，减少因破坏性缺水导致的重大损失。【结论】在缺水期，对冲模型展现出了显著的减小缺水损失的能力，可为区域水资源管理和防灾减灾工作提供重要的科学依据和技术支持。 |
| 关键词: 水资源调度；对冲模型；干旱；京津区域；南水北调工程 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025147 |
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| An integrated model for coordinating external and internal water transfers in the Beijing-Tianjin Region |
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LINA·Tuoku, LIU Nan, MEN Baohui, WU Xingtao
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College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】The Beijing-Tianjin region confronts acute water supply challenges, driven by high socioeconomic water demand, limited local water resources, heavy reliance on external transfers, and increased drought risks and climate change. We propose a water resource scheduling model in this paper to alleviate water shortages. 【Method】An objective function minimizing water shortage loss was established based on the ’10 000- yuan output water intake’ concept. Drought risk functions were constructed for four scenarios: abundant water in both supply and receiving regions, drought in both regions, and differential combination of abundance and drought between the supply and receiving regions. An integrated model was developed to analyze drought risk under varying water availability in both regions; water scheduling was optimized based on the importance of water users and water use efficiency to ensure fair, efficient water allocation. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated by comparing its water supply performance with that of the standard operation policy (SOP) model under different scenarios. 【Result】Under the same scenarios, the drought risk-incorporated model significantly reduces water shortage frequency, compared to the SOP model. Implementing early water restriction measures can mitigate deterioration of water shortages and reduce severe losses from critical shortages. 【Conclusion】During drought period, the proposed model reduces water shortage losses. It can help improve water resource management and mitigate severe water shortages in the Beijing-Tianjin region. |
| Key words: water allocation; Hedging model; drought; Beijing-Tianjin region; South-to-North Water Transfer Project |
